🗝️Three conclusions

1. Big Pie and Second Pie are consensus-driven and have nothing to do with new or old

2. Liquidity market attention comes first, and there is a certain positive correlation between new and old projects and market attention

3. It is difficult for market participants to avoid reference point dependence



1. It is difficult to agree with the phenomenon of speculating on new products instead of old ones.$BTC , Ether$ETH It's a bit inappropriate to compare the two.

📍The general market sentiment of "speculating on new rather than old" refers to the copycats in the previous cycle.

Big Pie and Second Pie have a market consensus status. The consensus here means that when the market liquidity does not know what to buy, just buy these two.

The concern behind old coins and old copies is that during the round of decline in 2021-2023, retail investors will be left trapped.

Regarding the issue of trapped shares, let’s take an example from other sectors.

(1) The decentralized storage sector represented by $FIL in the last round actually overlaps with the Depin narrative in this round. So, in this round of Depin market, do you choose to buy FIL or new projects?

Let me ask the question from a different angle: Do you think it will be easier for FIL or a new project to boost the storage market?

This is of course closely related to market attention and liquidity, but should incremental liquidity take into account the problem of historical locked-in positions?

I know that some people will still choose FIL because it is a bet on the certainty of the sector.

(2) Well, choose a track where the leading effect is not so high: Gamefi

Do you choose old coins like YGG, Axie, or new coins listed on Binance this time?

Or in other words, which one do you think is easier to pull up? (PORTAL/PIXEL, etc.)

2. Some people may ask, are there no locked positions in the big cake and the second cake? Yes, of course there are, but the leading effect will attract market attention and liquidity🔻

Their strength is not a matter of whether they are new or old, but the old ones in the same batch are weaker. The market finally found that they still chose these two (consensus)

  • (1) Think about it, how much of the incremental market liquidity will go back to look at old projects? And how much can withstand the reference point dependence to buy in?

  • (2) In the context of rapid market sector rotation, and the fact that Web3 itself launches projects quickly, is it easier for new projects to grab market attention or old projects?

  • (3) Think again: Why do old projects frequently undergo brand upgrades and project mergers in the market?

3. The phenomenon of speculating on new products instead of old ones is not idiotic at all. It is even a phenomenon with theoretical basis.

Based on the reference point reliance of behavioral finance, secondary market investors will always subconsciously refer to some historical landmark prices, such as previous highs and lows, when choosing investment targets.

So how far are some of the leading old coins from their previous highs? See the data in the following figure:

In this data, all are representative projects with outstanding performance in the sector in the last cycle (if you don’t count, you won’t know that Polkadot and ATOM are the best in the sector overall...😂)

When the incremental liquidity of the market is holding a certain target, a look at the historical trend will directly scare off a wave of people, and fundamental investment can hardly dominate everything. In a zero-sum market, liquidity is king, but it is the market's attention that guides liquidity.

But even if some projects have gained market attention, potential investors are always easily discouraged when they notice some history.