The Fed's decision to cut interest rates depends on a variety of economic indicators and outlook analysis, so the specific time of the rate cut is difficult to accurately predict. The Fed will formulate monetary policy based on its assessment of factors such as inflation, employment, economic growth and global economic conditions.

As for whether interest rate cuts can bring about economic recovery, this is not absolute. Interest rate cuts can indeed reduce the borrowing costs of enterprises and individuals, stimulate investment and consumption, and thus have a positive impact on the economy. However, the effect of interest rate cuts also depends on other economic factors, such as consumer confidence, corporate investment willingness, and the international economic situation.

The view you mentioned that when the Fed cuts interest rates, it may mean that the US economy is in recession is reasonable. Because when the economy shows signs of recession, the Fed may stimulate the economy by cutting interest rates. But interest rate cuts themselves are not the cause of recession, but a policy means to deal with recession.

As for whether the US economy will pick up after the interest rate cut, this also depends on a variety of factors. Interest rate cuts may inject vitality into the economy, but they also require the cooperation of other policies and the active response of enterprises and consumers. In addition, the global economic situation will also have an impact on the recovery of the US economy.

Finally, the view you mentioned that U.S. Treasuries become high-quality investment assets when interest rates are cut, the dollar flows into U.S. Treasuries, and the rise in gold prices are all possible economic impacts of interest rate cuts. However, it should be noted that the relationship between these factors is complex and needs to be considered comprehensively.