Bitcoin’s yesterday’s forecast worked within 24 hours, but this morning it fell below 64K, where it remains for now. The local minimum is set at 63395.
The reason is everything that was mentioned in yesterday’s Review. And the dollar index rose to 105.5, and IBIT opened with a fall (already in the red by more than 2.2%), and there is FUD. About the German government, which sold (or allegedly sold) more than $195 million worth of BTC. A total of $425 million is up for sale.
You can look at all this from the point of view of “Bitcoin has fallen below a monthly low and continues to fall. Nightmare. Everything is lost. Crypto scam."
But you can look at it another way.
- On May 1st of this year (51 days ago) Bitcoin was below 57K.
- At the beginning of this year (a little more than six months ago) Bitcoin was worth a little more than 43K
- A year ago Bitcoin was worth about 26600
After these numbers, how “scary” does the fall of Bitcoin from 72K, where it was 2 weeks ago, to 63,500 look?
Where should you be afraid?
Especially when you consider that all the global reasons on the basis of which Bitcoin is expected to reach 100K remain valid.
Nowadays, these reasons have been supplemented by the situational competition between participants in the US election race for the crypto audience.
And also - the growth of interest in crypto due to the growing processes of anti-globalization and fragmentation of the world economy, sanctions and other trash. As a result, there is a growing demand for both the non-bank movement of funds and the preservation and increase of assets outside the existing financial system.
There is less and less trust in Tether and stables, as they actively block wallets. Today alone, Tether froze 48 million USDT. That’s why those who understand the situation correctly prefer Bitcoin for storage.
And I’m not even talking about short-term prospects, such as the approval of S1 for the ETH ETF. News on this topic can appear at any time, including today.
Anyone who uses the brain for its intended purpose understands which arguments are more powerful.
But why is the dollar index rising so much?
Typically, a rise in the dollar index occurs when market participants want to exit risky assets. Therefore, the stock market and crypto always suffer.
But now the situation is somewhat different.
The growth of the dollar index is not accompanied by a simultaneous increase in bond yields; there is nothing extreme in them yet. The S&P 500 fell, but only slightly.
The reason for the growth of the dollar index now is different. Central banks of countries whose currencies are included in the basket to which the dollar index is quoted have reduced rates. And the Fed is in no hurry to cut rates. Hence the growth of the dollar index.
At the same time, while the dollar index is below 105.5, there is nothing extreme about this yet, it is within the range where it has been moving for more than a month. If it gets to 106, it’s already worse. Going above 106.100 is a real extreme. But I see this as unlikely.
The priority option for Bitcoin is movement in the range with the lower limit at 63000-63500 and the upper limit at 64800-65000
Alternative - consolidation below 63000.
The alts look pretty good - at this flush Bitcoin updated at least, but neither Ethereum nor most of the TOP alts did so. Bitcoin Dominance Index Drops to 55.17%
If we go into the weekend with Bitcoin above 64500, it will be quite good for alts. Maybe we’ll even take profits on some positions. Partially, of course. The real goals are not close yet.
We remember that even working out an alternative option (if there is one) is temporary.
And the market’s upward movement after such a long mess can be quick and recoilless.
