#币安合约锦标赛 #币安上线ZK

Bitcoin (BTC) has risen to a high of $73,000 this year (the current price has fallen back to $65,200), but the altcoins in the hands of many people are in a state of falling more than rising, and some even suffer a sharp drop in price. This situation has never occurred in previous bull markets.

In addition to mainstream cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum (ETH), the altcoin market is also worthy of attention. However, the "altcoin season" similar to 2021 that the market has been waiting for has not yet appeared. Although the overall performance of cryptocurrencies in the first quarter of this year was good, there is still a significant gap compared with the bull market in 2021.

You should know that in 2021, the altcoin market has risen across the board. Hundreds of altcoins have doubled in price within a month, and some have even doubled several times. The price increase of most altcoins is much higher than that of Bitcoin. Investors just need to know how to buy and hold on to it.

The general rise of altcoins usually refers to a period when altcoins outperform Bitcoin and prices soar across the board. This year, some people in the market have discussed the reasons for the absence of altcoins in the current bull market, but few analyses have focused on the flow of funds and explored why the money-making effect of altcoins has declined rapidly after 2021.

A large number of tokens unlocked
The dilution from the massive token unlocking has hampered this altcoin season. This factor has absorbed a lot of organic inflows, and even if the technology is good, it is difficult for prices to rise when supply exceeds demand.

Bitcoin's market capitalization has grown from $33 billion in January 2023 to $1.4 trillion in 2024, an increase of 324%. During the same period, the market capitalization of altcoins increased from $85 billion to $350 billion, an increase of 3.11%. Although Bitcoin has set a new high in 2021, the market capitalization of altcoins is close to 85% of its 2021 peak.

However, a detailed analysis of the market capitalization of altcoins shows that of the $265 billion increase, about $100 billion came from the release of restricted tokens, $60 billion came from the issuance of new tokens, and the actual increase in market capitalization due to rising token prices was only $105 billion. In other words, in the past year or so of bull market, more than half of the monthly increase in altcoins was occupied by the release of old tokens and the issuance of new tokens.

In the next six months, the scale of altcoin unlocking is expected to reach $20 billion, and nearly $6 billion of new tokens will be issued each month. The contradiction between this dumping supply and limited demand will lead to an increasingly serious liquidity dilemma in the altcoin market.

More and more projects
The market appears to be full of liquidity, but it is overwhelmed by too many projects. According to third-party statistics, as of 2024, the number of cryptocurrencies has exceeded 2.52 million, which is 5.7 times more than the 440,000 cryptocurrencies at the end of 2021. The number of cryptocurrency has shown a significant growth trend in recent years. In September 2022, the number of cryptocurrency exceeded one million for the first time. By the end of the year, it had increased to 1.15 million, a year-on-year increase of 159.2%.