Bitcoin is slowly declining, having lost -9% from a local peak and -3.64% since the beginning of this month.
At the same time, many alts fell by -20-30% and even -50-60%!
Most of the alts are already trading at the levels of February of this year; it was in this range that most of the old market players made purchases for their long-term portfolio.
And some of the alts managed to fall beyond their historical lows 📉
Apparently, a stress test is currently taking place in the market with the goal of knocking out all the old players from the market and leaving them without positions before the true upward movement.
And all this is happening against the backdrop of daily updating of the maximums by the US SP500 and NDAX indices.
💰 Yesterday Bitcoin already tested the long-term moving average MA20w passing around $64,400. Closing the hole in the profile volume.
The moving MA20w passes almost through the middle of the current side channel in which we have been trading for more than 110 days!
If this support block does not hold, then the price will fall like a stone to the test of the MA200d moving average passing around $57,000 ☄️
In this case, the indicator will go into the extreme oversold zone on the daily timeframe and into the neutral zone on the weekly timeframe.
However, 2 bullish wedges have already formed on the chart!
⌛️How long can we fall?
According to the cycles, Bitcoin only has exactly 2-3 weeks left for such negative scenarios.
Moreover, in 2 weeks the quarter will end, where there will be quarterly expiration of options - the most important event for any market.
Considering that the current quarter was opened at a Bitcoin price of $71,288 - almost historical highs. It is logical to assume that the big man was planning for a decline in this quarter and buying PUT options (a bet on the fall of Bitcoin) while actively accumulating these assets in his portfolios 💼
Considering that for several months in a row exchange balances $BTC and $ETH decrease - space is open for manipulation.
On the one hand, the massive withdrawal of these assets from exchanges is intended for storage in personal wallets in the medium and long term, which means that the larger ones are confident of growth.
On the other hand, the less liquidity on the exchange, the easier it is to push the price of an asset where they need it ⚖️
📆 In 2 weeks, when the next quarter arrives, new option positions will open and large market participants are unlikely to be interested in lowering the price in the third quarter, especially to fall below $57,000 at the early stage of a bull market is simply pointless.
But starting the quarter at lower levels and ultimately closing the quarter at much higher levels provides opportunities for huge earnings not only due to the COL option, but also due to already acquired positions 🚀
📊 Personally, we have drawn all the conclusions for ourselves.
The market is shaking out all the weak hands and stress testing the old market players. This has always been the case before the start of growth, just analyze the historical charts at similar moments.
In the meantime, large stocks are being actively purchased before the start of a new quarter, where, in all respects, they will be betting on growth through options in order to multiply their profits.
The choice is yours: wait out the drawdown and enter the market 100% during the current decline, or sell the entire loss and then watch the growth with your eyes.
🤟 Did you like the review or want to better understand cryptocurrencies and technical analysis?
➡️ #cassius_trade Look for us on Pavel Durov’s social network. Be sure to subscribe!
