Is crypto over? Did you make money in this bull market?

I. Market hype logic

Crypto bull market rules

The 2021 crypto bull market is similar. First, DeFi Summer led Uni and Aave to rise, followed by BTC and ETH unilaterally rising, and various theme stocks followed suit. In the middle and late stages, Meme coins such as Doge and Shib soared, followed by chain games and metaverse themes. After the market went crazy, the adjustment never returned.

Bull market commonality

The core logic of the bull market is to prioritize hype of high-certainty, high-value assets, then hot themes and tracks, and finally junk coins and Meme coins. With the development of blockchain, new narratives and tracks continue to emerge. It is difficult for the market to summarize the development stage through themes, but changes in market value can provide clues:

Core assets (BTC and ETH) -> high market value -> medium market value -> low market value -> Meme -> NFT/others

II. Changes and differences in this round of bull market

1. Insufficient capital efficiency

In this round of bull market, capital liquidity is insufficient and the money-making effect is poor. Although ETFs inject liquidity into BTC, they cannot spread to other tracks. The Fed's expectation of rate cuts cannot guarantee a significant improvement in the market. Funds may flow into the stock market and the property market first, and then into the crypto market.

 2. Changes in the liquidity structure of funds

The funds injected by ETFs can only be transmitted to BTC and ETH, and cannot overflow layer by layer. The market is like a reservoir. The upper layer will overflow to the lower layer only when it is full of water. The current level's money-making effect weakens, and funds will flow to the lower value layer, and the risk will gradually increase.

 3. The dilemma of the primary market

For example, the zk project shows that the primary market cannot accommodate many participants. The secondary market is short of funds, and many people turn to the primary market, but without the secondary market's takeover, the primary market is difficult to survive.

 4. The high valuation of new tokens squeezes liquidity

The listing of sky-high market value tokens squeezes liquidity, such as BB, Not, io and zk. High valuations compress the upside space, and funds flow into new coins, squeezing the liquidity of altcoins. High FDV leads to retail investors' unwillingness to take over and turn to fully circulated Meme tokens.

5. Impact of high FDV

Binance Research pointed out that high FDV pushed up the market value, but retail investors were unwilling to take over, and the market could not form a unified consensus. #内容挖矿