2024.6.18 Arrange the interest rate cut market in batches, time is the best investment tool
The interest rate cut means that central banks of various countries have seen the coming of recession and started to cut interest rates to prevent it
The market is trading expectations. The start of the interest rate cut cycle represents the coming of recession, so the market will show a short-term decline in the top of the construction
Here we can see that the US interest rate hike is almost over from the global blood sucking, because its last two blood bags have begun to be consumed
And net liquidity = FED (Federal Reserve Balance Sheet) - TGA (Treasury Account) - RRP (Night Reverse Repurchase)
Looking at history, TGA accounts generally continue to decrease throughout the summer, until September to start large-scale bond issuance to supplement
And at the current rate, the RRP overnight account should be almost zero by September
That means that when bonds are issued in September, market liquidity will be rapidly increased, and there should be a big drop in September, which needs attention.
Technical side
Five-day line: The MA200 moving average of the five-day line has broken, and this wave will go to the 59,000 line
Daily line: The trend of the daily line level is to fall sideways. It is very likely that this kind of ups and downs will occur in the second half of the month to mid-July. I have mentioned the 7w-5w shock before, which is basically in line with
Four-hour line: This four-hour line currently broke through the previous low of 65190, and the lowest inserted to 64569. It can be regarded as the completion of this downward trend. There will be a four-hour level rebound below. Whether it rebounds to 67500 or 68600 depends on the amount of energy released upward today and tomorrow
Operation plan: Buy more when the price drops sharply, buy less when the price drops slightly, and lay out in advance for the subsequent interest rate cuts, sow seeds in advance, mainly spot, supplemented by contracts, consider opening shorts near 68600
