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YEREVAN (CoinChapter.com) — Altcoin seasons typically come a few weeks or months after Bitcoin halvings. There is a possibility that Ethereum and other altcoins may start rallying massively against Bitcoin in the coming months. But, according to cryptocurrency analyst Murad, altcoin season bulls need a reality check.
“Why large-scale, prolonged Altcoin Season is NOT coming any time soon. The most you can hope for is an occasional well-timed spike by a particular flavor-of-the-month outperformer from the crypto-native PvP hot ball of money.”
Murad’s Prediction on Altcoin Season. Source: MustStopMurad U.S. Savings Are Crashing — No Altcoin Season, Therefore
Recent data shows a significant drop in U.S. household cumulative excess savings. In July 2021, household savings peaked at $1,868 billion. Since then, this figure has drastically reduced, with projections indicating a drop to -$1,832 billion by mid-2024.
US Household Savings Decline. Source: X
As savings decrease, the overall financial environment tightens. This impacts all markets, including cryptocurrencies. In other words, the sharp decline in U.S. household savings suggests that Americans have less disposable income for speculative investments like cryptocurrencies, which may end up delaying the altcoin season in 2024.
Analyst Cowen on Altcoin Bull Run and Fed Rate Cuts
Cryptocurrency analyst Benjamin Cowen provides important insights. He believes an altcoin bull run requires Federal Reserve rate cuts. Historical data shows altcoins perform better after the Fed lowers interest rates.
Cowen states,
“In fact, many altcoins are declining, more are declining than rising, and that’s why the advance/decline index is falling again. This also fell just before the Fed’s rate cut in 2019. It fell very, very quickly, and then of course the Fed started cutting in July. We need to pay attention to this because many people continue to call for altseason, but we didn’t reach this stage in the last cycle until the Fed lowered rates.”
Fed Rate Cuts and Altcoin Performance. Source: Benjamin Cowen Rising Bitcoin Dominance is Another Barrier to Altcoin Season
Another key factor is Bitcoin’s crypto market dominance. Cowen predicts that Bitcoin’s market share could rise to around 60% from the current 53%, suggesting a shift in investor preference towards Bitcoin over altcoins. This, again, could delay the altcoin season.
Rising Bitcoin dominance indicates a shift towards Bitcoin as a safer asset. As Bitcoin gains more market share, altcoins may struggle to maintain their value.
Current Market Conditions
As of June 17, 2024, Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at $66,200. This reflects a period of relative calm in the cryptocurrency market. Despite this stability, altcoins have shown mixed performance.
Bitcoin Holds Firm Above Key Support Level. Source: CoinMarketCap
The price of BLUR, a token within the Ethereum ecosystem, fell by 2.92%. This followed a significant token unlock and transfer to Coinbase Prime.
BLUR Token Price Decline Over the Past Week. Source: CoinMarketCap
BLUR’s market value stands at $519 million. The recent unlock involved 37.5 million BLUR tokens worth $11.6 million. This large transfer affected the market, causing the price to drop.
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