This round of bull market: 1. Slow growth, not showing the money-making effect of previous bull markets; 2. Poor liquidity, most of the high-market-cap altcoins except BTC have not reached new highs; 3. Lack of traffic, social media attention is much lower than in previous bull markets; Let's talk about these 3 points systematically:
1. Is this bull market growing slower than previous bull markets?
How to judge whether this bull market is rising fast or slow? This is a technical question. The momentum of price increase is not simply the speed of change, but its sustainability. For example, if a bull market takes one year to complete, then if this bull market fluctuates at a low level in the first 11 months of the year, but rises by 300% in the last month, then peaks and enters a bear market, would you call this a bull market?
Although the price rose very fast in the last month, this kind of market situation does not represent the continuous demand in the market. It can only be regarded as the main force operation, which is more common in the market of small-cap altcoins. This kind of bull market has only one purpose: to increase shipments. Therefore, for BTC, the bull market we need to see is a long-term process with long-term sustainability, continuous buying, and rising prices. This structure corresponds to the long-term strong demand, indicating that people are truly buying, holding, and holding for a long time. We can analyze the price growth rate of each round of bull market from three dimensions: the duration of the bull market, the increase brought by the bull market, and the momentum in the bull market process; as shown in the figure:
In order to make a fair comparison with the current bull market, I use the same structural interval to calculate the average daily price increase here; the corresponding intervals are all the early brewing stage of a bull market, that is, from the lowest point to the time when the price just breaks through the new high and fluctuates near the previous historical high; dividing the price increase during this period by the number of days it lasts, it can be concluded that the early trend stage of the last three bull markets, the rate of increase is indeed gradually declining, with an average daily increase of 1.10%, 0.71% and the current 0.65% respectively; that is to say, even if the current BTC immediately breaks through the new high, in the early brewing stage of this bull market, its rate of increase will always be lower than the previous two bull markets, not to mention that if BTC continues to fluctuate, this 0.65% value will continue to decrease over time; in this way, this bull market is indeed rising slowly. Next, let's take a look at the price momentum: As shown in the figure, the following three charts correspond to the performance of BTC prices on the ASR-VC trend indicator after breaking the new high for the first time in 2017, 2020, and 2024:
March 2017
December 2020
March 2024
At first glance, it seems that there are obvious differences; the first two times the price broke through the historical high, there were different degrees of deep corrections, but these corrections have one feature, that is, they did not destroy the trend strength of the original upward channel. The green middle track line in the figure always keeps going up, while in the current market, the middle track of the green channel at the daily level has almost flattened, which has never happened in history; on the other hand, it is worth noting that after the first two times the price experienced a deep correction, it successfully broke through when testing the previous historical high for the second or third time, thus creating a new strong bull market, while the current situation is that there have been multiple consecutive tests, and no strong bull market has been created;
Conclusion: From this perspective, the early stage of the bull market we are currently experiencing is far inferior to the previous two bull markets in terms of trend momentum.
Although this does not mean that this round of bull market may have peaked, from the perspective of the overall structure of a bull market, the foundation of this round of bull market is not well laid, and the demand is not sustained, which has led to the long-term fluctuation at the previous high position; then what is the reason for the weak foundation? Next, let's compare from the perspective of liquidity!
2. Is the overall liquidity of this bull market worse than previous bull markets?
Although the overall liquidity level cannot absolutely reflect the rise and fall of prices, the liquidity level can determine the upper limit of price increases. The overall liquidity level of the cryptocurrency market is mainly observed through two aspects: on-site liquidity and off-site liquidity. On-site liquidity generally refers to assets that have been converted into stablecoins or cryptocurrencies through legal currency, which is reflected in the chart as the total market value of stablecoins. OTC liquidity generally refers to global liquidity, which can be more specifically expressed as net US dollar liquidity, which is reflected in the chart as the Fed's balance sheet minus a series of deposit items in US dollar fiscal accounts. First, let's look at on-site liquidity, that is, the performance of the market value of stablecoins in the past two bull markets. Because USDC and DAI appeared later, we will start with USDT. As shown in the figure, in order to meet the current market rhythm where BTC prices are near the previous high and are ready to break through at any time, we compare the USDT market value level during the same period of the last bull market. They are: the USDT market value at the previous historical high and the USDT market value level before the current bull market is about to break through the historical high.
It can be seen that before the last bull market completely broke through the 20,000 mark, the market value of USDT had increased by $18.7 billion compared to the market value level when the bull market peaked in 2017. To put it bluntly, when the price returned to the same position, USDT had $18.7 billion more than before; this $18.7 billion of additional liquidity is the foundation laid in the early stage of the last bull market. Considering that the price of BTC is different from the current one, we also need to pay attention to the increase in the market value of USDT during this period. It can be seen that before the last bull market completely broke through the historical high, the market value of USDT had increased by 1680%! Then look at the current bull market. Under the same conditions, the market value of USDT has increased by $38.5 billion, but the increase is only 52.16%. Note that although the total market value is indeed higher than the previous bull market, the price of BTC is completely different; that is to say, because the historical high of BTC is different, the liquidity required for breakthrough must be different; we simply use the price ratio to convert: $69,000 / $20,000 = 3.45
18.7 billion x 3.45 = 64.5 billion
In other words, if the current bull market is to achieve the same breakthrough as the previous bull market, we need the market value of USDT to be 64.5 billion higher than the peak level of the previous bull market. In other words, the additional 38.5 billion US dollars added to the market is not enough, and the overall liquidity of this bull market is also insufficient compared to the previous bull market. You will definitely say, "You don't count other stablecoins, isn't this rogue?"
OK, let’s calculate the performance of USDT+USDC+DAI three major stablecoins and see:
As shown in the figure, I not only added USDC and DAI, but also added the net inflow of BTC spot ETFs. It can be seen that the increase in on-site liquidity in this bull market is indeed much greater, reaching 50.9 billion US dollars; and the increase in on-site liquidity before the last bull market broke through reached 22 billion US dollars; if we compare the last bull market at the same ratio: 22 billion x 3.45 = 75.9 billion
The liquidity accumulation in our current bull market is only 50.9 billion US dollars; 75.9 billion - 50.9 billion = 25 billion
That is to say, if the current bull market wants to replicate the situation of the previous bull market that broke through the previous high after a few weeks of fluctuations, it needs at least 25 billion US dollars of liquidity increase; obviously, it is precisely because of the lack of this 250 that our current bull market has been fluctuating near the previous high for a whole quarter! In other words, the liquidity accumulation of this bull market is indeed insufficient! But the question is, if there is a lack of this 250, will it be impossible to break through? I personally think that it is not necessarily the case. The key lies in whether liquidity can continue to increase. In other words, if there are three more months of fluctuations in the future, but during these three months, the liquidity increase brought by "stablecoin + ETF + Hong Kong ETF" gradually reaches a level of more than 20 billion, then we can smoothly break through the previous historical high and stay away from this disgusting range; however, the current situation is indeed not optimistic, because the increase in stablecoins has stagnated, and whether the net inflow of ETFs can continue to flow out of the continuous inflow after a short week of explosive volume is still unknown; the following figure shows the market value trend of stablecoins and the weekly net inflow level of ETFs in the past three months:
It can be seen that the growth of the total market value of stablecoins has obviously stagnated, and it is very likely to start choosing a direction in the future. If the total market value remains sideways, it will be fine. The most feared thing is that the market value of stablecoins will begin to shrink and outflow, which will pose a great threat to this round of bull market; at the same time, since stablecoins have no new liquidity, but the net inflow of ETFs has begun to recover in the past month, as a result, when the market value of stablecoins has not changed significantly, the price of BTC has begun to gradually rebound; you may be curious why BTC has entered an extremely shrinking and sideways trend every weekend. The above chart explains the cause of this phenomenon, because the on-site stablecoin funds have completed the game, the price of BTC is more susceptible to ETFs, so liquidity will only be restored during the opening of US stocks; therefore, the most important thing to pay attention to at the moment is whether the market value of stablecoins can move in a new direction. If it moves upward, it must be due to some long-term positive macro data, and BTC will be able to recover in the additional liquidity If liquidity gradually becomes sufficient, there will be a formal breakthrough of the current range; if it goes down, it will inevitably lead to longer-term shocks and pullbacks. To put it bluntly, the current BTC is breaking through the level too fast. When it comes to the BOSS (historical high), it finds that it cannot beat it. It must recharge another 25 billion US dollars to enhance its combat power. BTC, unwilling to give up, chooses to fight monsters and level up at the door of the BOSS room until it recharges enough money and then launches the final challenge; Conclusion: This round of bull market is indeed different from the previous bull markets. It went too fast in the early stage, resulting in the current situation that only time can be used to exchange space. If it can maintain the current range long enough and liquidity continues to increase, it will eventually break through. If it accidentally falls below the range and liquidity begins to shrink and outflow, then the bull market is likely to end early; since we have mentioned the macro, let's talk about OTC liquidity, that is, net US dollar liquidity; because this part involves too much macro content, I can only make a simple comparison, as shown in the figure:
We still use a similar comparison method as on-site liquidity. We can see that when the last bull market finally broke through the previous historical high, the net liquidity of the US dollar in the external environment had increased by 1433 billion US dollars, reaching an increase of 33.25%; in the early stage of this bull market, not only did the external net liquidity of the US dollar not increase, but it also shrank by 857.1 billion US dollars, reaching a shrinkage of 12.22%. This seems to explain why the accumulation of liquidity in the current bull market is far less than that in the previous bull market. Obviously, the external environment is not a state of abundant liquidity; but even so, if you look closely at the blue net liquidity curve of the US dollar, the overall performance in the past year is oscillating upward, that is, although the overall liquidity is insufficient, at least in the past year It is in a state of slow growth; and BTC has still come out of a short-term high in such a harsh external environment. To be honest, if the proportion of liquidity diverted from the US dollar to BTC in the past bull market was only (220/14330) 1.5%, the diversion ratio in the current bull market may have reached (509/5692) 8.9%! This means that the trust and favor of traditional capital for BTC has reached a new level! From this perspective, this round of bull market is indeed different from previous bull markets. The overall environment is very bad, and the whole class did not perform well, but BTC can at least rank in the top 5, especially when Nvidia ranked first in the class, BTC's performance is already very good!
That’s all about liquidity. Another point is about media attention.
3. Compared with previous bull markets, are fewer people paying attention to the current bull market?
Let me first throw out the conclusion. The answer is yes! For practitioners or traders in the cryptocurrency industry, it seems that BTC has been the focus of global attention in the past two years, but in fact, at least from a data perspective, the results are disappointing; as shown in the figure, this is the number of video views of all BTC-related channels on YouTube in the past five years. You can clearly see that the highlight moment of BTC was the bull market in 2021, and in this round of bull market, both the attention and topic popularity are not as good as before!
A sad fact: when BTC broke through the all-time high of 69,000, the popularity on YouTube was not as high as when FTX crashed... But if we still compare it with the previous price breakthroughs, the data is still much better than in the past. This shows that if the price of BTC can continue to be strong in the future and break through the $100,000 mark, these long-silent leeks will come back! Conclusion: From the perspective of social media, this round of bull market is not much different from the past bull market. BTC has achieved social media normalization, especially in the current market that is gradually becoming US-based, the attention of the majority of leeks is far less important than in the past bull market.
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