The chip structure on the chain can be used as an extremely important reference for trend judgment. Through the dense area formed by the movement of chips on the chain, we can observe who is buying (buying willingness) and who is selling (selling risk), so as to predict which direction the market may move in the next time. A chip-dense area formed by long-term turnover is often the "springboard" for the next stage.

The stronger the chip structure (thickness), the wider the price span (width), and the greater the probability of upward development. "Thickness" means that there is a strong willingness to buy in this range, and it can take over the distribution of chips in other low-cost ranges. And because of high expectations for the future, the selling risk generated when prices fluctuate will also be low. "Width" means that the chips are well dispersed and will not generate concentrated selling pressure. As long as there is no sudden black swan event, the chip-dense area will form a "resistance and stickiness" effect on the price, that is, it is not very sensitive to prices and is not easy to be penetrated.

Throughout this cycle, there are two impressive “springboards”:

A. USD 25,000-30,000;

B. USD 41,000-44,000 range;

The formation of interval A took 220 days from March to October 23;

The formation of range B took 67 days from December 23 to February 24. Therefore, we can see that the formation of a thick price range must be based on "months". During this period, both long and short sides need to experience fierce confrontations before they can finally form a consensus on the "bottom". The figure below is the URPD data on October 15, 2023. After 220 days of turnover, 467w BTC were accumulated in the range of 25,000-30,000 US dollars, accounting for 24% of the total#BTCcirculation at that time.

It can be said that this is an extremely exaggerated huge data. Almost all selling risks have been released here, and the next "take-off" is a natural result.

On the eve of the approval of the spot ETF on January 6, 2024, BTC accumulated 2 million BTC at $41,000-44,000 after 67 days of turnover. Among them, 1.69 million BTC were transferred from the A range (i.e., the 25,000-30,000 range). This is a process of exchanging low-priced chips for high-priced chips, allowing short-term chips with favorable expectations of ETF trading to get off the train in advance.

At the same time, there are still 2.98 million chips with firm conviction in the A range. This is also the important reason why BTC fell back from 46,000 to 38,000 after the ETF was passed, but did not continue to fall back to the A range. Almost all the chips that can move are in these two ranges. Those who hold the chips in the low range do not want to sell, and those who hold the chips in the high range are reluctant to sell, which naturally creates conditions for another jump. At present, the chip structure on the chain is quietly forming the C range! This is a large range from 60,000 to 70,000 US dollars, which includes 2 small ranges, namely 60,000-64,000 US dollars and 66,000-70,000 US dollars. For the convenience of expression, we temporarily call them C1 and C2 ranges.

As of June 15, there are 1.1 million chips in the C1 interval and 1.89 million chips in the C2 interval, of which 1.03 million chips were transferred from the A interval and 97 million chips were transferred from the B interval.

From the perspective of time cycle, this process lasted 104 days (the conditions in "months" have been met). If you ask me how long it will take to accumulate next? I don't know. But according to the data from the previous times, theoretically, as a "springboard", it should not require a price span as wide as 10,000 US dollars (5,000 US dollars is enough). Therefore, both C1 and C2 are likely to become the bottom ranges for consensus in the future. If it is C1, then we have to wait for the chips of C2 to be gradually digested and slowly transferred to C1 to continue to form a more solid range structure. Or form a new accumulation area between C1 and C2. Of course, this alone is not enough...

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