Recently, many friends have asked me whether the bull market is still there, and their mentality is about to collapse.
Why is there a big bull market in the currency circle? What distinguishes the bear and bull? If this question is not thought through clearly and there is no firm opinion in the mind, then the mentality is indeed easy to collapse under the current ups and downs.
All the value coins in the currency circle, whether it is the mainstream currency big cake, or the copycat second cake, sol, it is difficult to say that there are fundamentals. Even if there are, they are mostly far-fetched. So what do mainstream coins without fundamentals rely on?
Is it the belief in meme? Or decentralized consensus, or the ambition of digital gold?
The most fundamental thing is of course liquidity. Rely on flowing capital, injected funds, fans in the community, and those large institutions that enter the game to sit on the banker.
Liquidity is the root of everything.
The biggest source of liquidity now is capital from the United States and Europe, so the Fed's expectation management has such a big impact on the currency circle.
The Fed's expectation management is for the entire US economy, not for managing the currency circle. It will affect the currency circle, but it will not emphasize or conceal liquidity for the currency circle.
What we need to do is to identify whether the liquidity is still there, whether it will be tightened or relaxed.
So is the liquidity still there?
In the first half of the year, the Fed has essentially been slowly ending QT. From March to May, Yellen has also been issuing bonds. In the second half of the year, Master Bao made various hawkish remarks, which cannot change the basic fact that if liquidity is not relaxed, the soft landing there is just talk on paper and castles in the air.
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