Bitcoin Market Analysis from its Beginnings to June 2024
Evolution of Bitcoin
$BTC was created in 2009 by an individual or group of individuals under the pseudonym Satoshi Nakamoto. Its initial price in 2010 was less than a penny, but over time, it has reached historic values due to its growing adoption, its limited supply of 21 million bitcoins and its perception as a digital reserve.
In 2013, reached $1,000 for the first time. However, volatility marked its trajectory, with dramatic falls and rises. In 2017, it’s price reached all-time highs (ATH) in December around $20,000 USD and again in March 2024 when it reached approximately $75,830.
Bitcoin has gone through several phases of growth driven by events such as halvings, increases in institutional adoption and regulatory changes. The halvings (halving of mining rewards) in 2012, 2016 and 2020 have played a crucial role in its appreciation. For example, a $100 investment in the first halving in 2012 would have been worth more than $1.6 million in 2023.
Recent Performance (2023 - June 2024)
In 2023, Bitcoin showed a significant recovery after a bear market in 2022. It surpassed $40,000 USD in October 2023, driven by the expectation of the approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF, which attracted more institutional investors. Volatility hit record lows in August 2023, but activity on the blockchain, such as #ordinals enrollments, boosted transaction fees and miner revenues.
In 2024, through June, $BTC continued its upward trajectory. Reduced volatility and increased network adoption and activity, reflected in the growing number of addresses with positive balances and new addresses created, indicated continued adoption.
Technical Analysis and Projection for 2024
From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin has followed typical market cycle patterns, with phases of accumulation, expansion and correction.
The 200-day moving average is in an uptrend, which is a bullish sign. The 50-day moving average is also showing a similar trend, indicating strong positive momentum. The RSI is in the neutral zone (30-70), suggesting that it is neither overbought nor oversold, maintaining a stable trend.
On the other hand, the recent appearance of a crossover of exponential moving averages (EMAs) in August 2023 suggests significant upside momentum. Historically, these crossovers have preceded significant upside moves.
Based on market structure and EMA analysis, it is possible to project that Bitcoin could reach new all-time highs in July 2024 (around $75,000 or $80,000 USD). Considering the EMA crossover and historical post-halving cycle patterns, a price target of $150,000 to $300,000 for 2024 does not seem far-fetched, provided momentum and demand is maintained.
Fundamental Factors
- Institutional Adoption: Large financial institutions and corporations continue to show interest in Bitcoin, adding credibility and stability to the market. The spot Bitcoin ETF has accumulated $71,172,138,831 USD equivalent to 1,072,282 BTC (5.106% of total BTC).
- Supply Reduction: Halvings continue to reduce the amount of new bitcoins, creating upward pressure on the price.
- Regulatory Events: Favorable regulatory changes may incentivize Bitcoin investment and adoption.
- Geopolitics and Economics: Factors such as inflation, economic uncertainty and monetary policies also influence the demand for alternative assets such as Bitcoin.
- Network Activity: Innovations such as Ordinal Inscriptions are increasing network activity and transaction fees, incentivizing miners and increasing security.
Bitcoin has proven to be a robust store of value and remains a highly volatile asset sensitive to various external factors. In short, BTC has proven to be a resilient and growing asset since its beginning. Technical and fundamental analysis suggests a continuation of its medium-term uptrend, with potential new all-time highs in 2024.
