According to the latest news, Ethereum will most likely pass the spot ETF in early July.
That means there are still about ten days left.
In an article two days ago, it was predicted that Ethereum would reach 3,500. The market will always, or it can be said that it will definitely give unexpected trends and will never follow a fixed script.
Ethereum plugged in at 3362.
The wonderful thing about the market is that in the short term, there is a big gap between 3362 and 3500. At least for those who have been falling continuously in the short term, it is surprising to break the psychological defense line again. But in the long run, 100 US dollars is meaningless.
Because the value of Ethereum in this bull market is either zero or ten thousand.
After the Ethereum ETF was approved, I am more inclined to the latter.
Ethereum is a public chain. Before 2018, it was unique. Even during the period of 2018-2020, it was the "infrastructure" of the cryptocurrency world and the king of public chains.
But with the innovation of technology, there are more and more competitors, sol is one of them, of course there are BSC, base, ton and so on.
Half a year ago, I thought that ETH was not competitive compared with Bitcoin because of the high risk of competition, the huge gap between it and the weakest ones.
However, no logic can compare to one thing: capital and institutional recognition.
The approval of the ETF is a turning point.
SOL's traffic and growth rate in the past two months began to be sucked away after the probability of Ethereum spot ETF passing increased.
The statement that the price of Ethereum is zero is actually more symbolic and seems exaggerated, but it is not exaggerated. It just means that if it is not competitive enough, it will soon fall to 2,000, 1,000, 500, or even 100.
Because competing products will have different qualities, some high and some low, and the difference between them will be huge.
The original ETC is now priced at more than 20 U. It is actually the brother of ETH, and even the real Ethereum main chain.
There are also Bitcoin competitors such as LTC and BCH. BCH was even hyped up to more than 6,000 U at the beginning, but it fell to a minimum of dozens of U in this round.
These failed competitors have fallen 99% and then 99% again. Even if they will rise again, for those believers who chase high prices, their positions are close to zero, and the possibility of getting out of the position is almost zero.
That's the law of natural selection.
Next, let’s talk about the actual market situation.
Judging from the recent market sentiment, it is extremely depressed, but the situation is actually beginning to ease. Even though ETH fell into a golden pit yesterday, the situation is still much better than before the release of CPI data, because only by breaking through can it be reversed, and detoxification requires scraping the bone.
The market situation has changed from a situation where the big cake fell slightly, went sideways, and the copycat stocks continued to fall without a rebound after the fall, to a situation where the big cake fell sharply, the copycat stocks fell with them, there would be a rebound after the fall, and even many copycat stocks did not fall at all.
Moreover, I believe that every downward trend in the previous week was actually a preparation for the next market trend.
Before the interest rate cut, the most certain market trend was Bitcoin.
When the Ethereum ETF is passed, Ethereum, SOL and some altcoins will benefit.
These two are relatively certain things.
Looking at the 4-hour K-line of Ethereum, it has actually been on a downward trend since 3900. The 1-hour line has a W bottom, and the second bottom is lower than the first one. On the surface, it is also a downward trend, but today, 24 hours later, this decline was strongly repaired, and yesterday it formed a short-selling K-line, which is not a real downward trend.
In fact, if you look at the market from a technical perspective, there are many confusing things in the currency circle.
For example, why after the downward trend of the market continues for a period of time, there will definitely be a downward spike in a certain sideways stage, and then a rebound, and then a second or even a third downward spike will appear in the next stage before it will officially reverse upward?
From a psychological perspective, it is the use of plug-in pins to lure shorts or buy more, repeatedly breaking the psychological defenses of retail investors and forcing them to cut their losses.
To put it simply, it is the reverse story of "The Boy Who Cried Wolf".
At the same time, the pin before the reversal is also to clear out the gamblers with high leverage.
So if we look at Ethereum's K-line again and add the timeline, it constitutes a reversal trend.
It is difficult to accurately predict a specific time point for a reversal of the market. You can look at the market conditions on April 14, then on May 1, and then on June 11 and yesterday. These positions are relatively speaking, time nodes for short-term reversal.
But it's all relative. We can only say that the opportunities are better at these time points, but they are not absolute. In fact, nothing is absolute.
As the old saying goes: Investing is about finding certainty amidst uncertainty.
Ethereum’s ETF and interest rate cuts are certainties, and the bull market is not over yet, so there is no psychological burden to buy at the bottom, and there is no need to cut losses.
What is uncertain is whether Ethereum will turn around and fall to 3400-3300 before this (certainty).
There aren't many opportunities like this anymore.
And it is meaningless. The floating profit and loss of positions is confusing. The upward main theme has not changed. Don't give up your long-term faith because of short-term panic.
Finally, I would like to leave you with a message: Faith requires a price, and you need to bear the price yourself. Be a mature investor, face your fears, and all external analysis is just a reference. #以太坊ETF批准预期
