At this week's FOMC meeting, the Fed's official statement and dot plot brought a hawkish impact to the market, with forecasts showing only one rate cut in 2024 and core PCE inflation predicted to reach 2.8% by the end of the year (higher than the previous forecast of 2.6%). However, Powell later pulled the discussion back to a dovish stance in the interview, pointing out that most officials did not take into account the lower-than-expected CPI data released just before the meeting, and traders were more inclined to focus on the positives brought by the CPI data rather than the FOMC's statement. The 10-year Treasury bond fell to the 4.20% mark for several days and the U.S. stock market hit a new high.
Source：Investing
In terms of digital currencies, BTC’s correlation with the macro environment/US debt was temporarily decoupled. ETFs once again saw significant outflows, with FBTC and GBTC losing $106.4 million and $61.5 million respectively, and Ark’s ARKB also taking away $53 million in funds. So far this week, net outflows have reached $564 million.
In addition, well-known trader Peter Brandt also expressed his views on the recent trend. He believes that if there is no rebound in the short term, the downward pressure on the currency price will continue. Furthermore, from a technical analysis, if the BTC price falls below the $65,000 support level, it is likely to continue to fall to the $60,000 mark, and the next step down is the low of $48,000. Admittedly, BTC has failed to challenge new highs for three consecutive months, and the bearish sentiment in the market has not subsided in the short term, but Brandt still pointed out the potential for upward movement in the future, emphasizing the price trend of "Hump with a Slump then a Pump and a Dump" that often occurs before a bull market.
Source: Farside Investors
Source: TradingView
In terms of options, implied volatility rose steeply to the intraday high at noon, and bullish volatility strategies represented by 28 JUN 24 66000-68000 Long Strangle appeared on BTC, and a considerable number of Call/Put Outright positions were bought on 21 JUN 24. However, the situation suddenly changed an hour before settlement, and IV quickly gave up all the gains of the day, accompanied by the Short Vol strategy of BTC on 21 JUN 24 and the large-scale selling of call options on ETH during this period, and the overall price finally closed down by about 1%.
Source: Deribit (as of 14 JUN 16: 00 UTC+ 8)
Source: SignalPlus
Data Source: Deribit, overall distribution of ETH transactions
Data Source: Deribit, overall distribution of BTC transactions
Source: Deribit Block Trade
Source: Deribit Block Trade
