Oh-oh-oh, who would have thought that the altseason would end before it began! All these Bitcoins suddenly took over and the altcoins lagged behind a little. What is altseason, you ask? This is the moment when altcoins, such as Ethereum, Dogecoin and other cool cryptocurrencies, begin to show trumps in relation to Bitcoin itself. But it was not there!
And this is not because altcoins suddenly stopped being cool, but simply because all this economic chaos and bearish trends in the market spoiled the buzz. But don't be discouraged! All these laws and trends in the cryptocurrency market are so unpredictable that even Einstein himself would have difficulty understanding them.
The cryptocurrency market is changing, and this casts a shadow on the potential of altcoin season. Altcoin season, or “altseason,” is when altcoins significantly outperform Bitcoin. This shift is being tracked by Bitcoin's market dominance and altcoin price movements.
Bitcoin dominance measures Bitcoin's share of the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies. During the alt season, this dominance drops as investors move capital into altcoins. A significant drop in Bitcoin dominance signals the arrival of altcoin season. Earlier this year, Bitcoin's dominance fell from 54% to 50% in January. However, it has since recovered, reaching 55% last month - its highest level since the March 2021 crash, when dominance fell from 70% to 40%.
The cryptocurrency market, as always, is subject to fluctuations. When Bitcoin's dominance suddenly grows, as it does now, the altseason can't hold on. In short, when Bitcoin begins to dominate, investors abandon the alts and flock to Bitcoin like a meat pie.
The alt season usually sees significant increases in altcoin prices, often outpacing Bitcoin. Altseason is typically active when 75% of the top 50 altcoins outperform Bitcoin over a three-month period. In the last 90 days, only eight cryptocurrencies have outperformed Bitcoin. Even the hype around meme coins and the hype around Ethereum ETFs failed to significantly boost altcoins.
Several factors contributed to the premature end of the altseason:
1. The power of Bitcoin. The growing demand for Bitcoin, especially after the successful launch of the spot BTC ETF, has eclipsed altcoins.
2. Market conditions. Bearish market trends and broader macroeconomic factors have dampened investor enthusiasm for altcoins.
If you believe the latest trends, the next altseason will probably creep upon us in a year or two. In the meantime, we are holding on to the powerful move of Bitcoin as if the world is going to end tomorrow. Predicting the next alternative season is difficult due to the inherent volatility of the cryptocurrency market.
However, since 2022, a pattern has emerged:
- August 2022: penultimate altseason.
- Six months later: Bitcoin season has begun.
- January 2023: The final altcoin season has begun.
- Five months later: It's Bitcoin season again.
If this trend continues, we can expect the next alternate season in about seven to eight months, around February 2025.
It seems that cryptomaniacs will not be able to get rich quickly😭😭 Well, yes, you shouldn’t expect super-richness from cryptocurrencies in 2024! Let's hope for the best, but prepare for the worst. All the best and good luck at this crypto carnival! 🚀💸
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