Dear All,
It took me a while to write this, a bit long, but worth it.
I understand many of you have unrealized gains and are in a huge drawdown. I feel your sorrow and frustration. I'll be writing a thread here so you can understand how market cycles work.
The market has cycles that always repeat themselves. These markets, like casinos, are designed for retail traders to lose money. Casinos are rich in statistics and understand human nature and emotions, operating solely for profit. They give small profits to attract consumers, who then become bait for more people. The same principle applies to financial markets, controlled by some of the smartest entities.
Consider the example of LUNA. After the crash, people bought at $1, saw it go up to $7, took profits, and then reinvested, only to lose everything. This cycle of "just one more" repeats because of greed.
I'll explain four types of market cycles and the emotions attached to them from my personal experience:
Accumulation: Happens after a strong decline when there's immense fear, hopelessness, and sadness. People are afraid to buy, thinking prices will drop further.
Uptrend: After accumulation, the market rallies. Despite fear and anxiety, prices rise, and people regret not buying earlier. Eventually, they succumb to FOMO and buy, often at the peak of the rally.
Distribution: Entities controlling the markets create euphoria and excitement, making people complacent and optimistic. They shill positive news, and retail investors keep buying, becoming exit liquidity for these entities.
Declining: From euphoria, the market starts to decline. Initially, people see this as a dip to buy, but as prices keep dropping, fear and depression set in, leading to panic selling and significant losses.
This cycle repeats. Understanding and internalizing this can make you consistently profitable in the long run.
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