The recent market conditions are related to three important node events.

The non-farm data a week ago was so good that the market expected a delay in the interest rate cut, and some professionals even predicted that "there will be no interest rate cut this year."

The market began to fall, with Bitcoin and Ethereum both falling by less than 10 points, and altcoins all falling sharply.

The market rose in the hours before and after the release of yesterday's CPI data (preferential), because the negative impact of the non-agricultural data had been fully digested within a week, bottoming out and rebounding rapidly.

The most important thing is that when everyone expects the market to continue to fall, there is a sudden reversal, which is in line with the routine of the dog dealer.

After the good news was released, Powell gave a hawkish speech at 2 a.m. and the market fell.

Now the situation is like this:

The non-farm data is half true and half false. Anyway, it gives the outside world the illusion that our economy is very strong, employment is good, and there is no need to cut interest rates in a hurry.

This then causes all risky assets to fall, and fall continuously, achieving the harvest.

The CPI data suddenly came out with positive news, and I think the dot plot is also positive, but it was misinterpreted by some people with ulterior motives. They only said that "eight officials believe that there will be only one interest rate cut this year", but did not mention that "seven officials believe that there should be two interest rate cuts this year" or what the Fed chairman said, "there is no plan to raise interest rates."

After the good news appeared, the market continued to rise, trying to break through 80,000.

Then the Eagle King released another eagle, and the market fell into correction again.

In fact, the most important thing is that the fundamentals today are very different from those when the non-farm data was released. Compared with the Fed's style, I think the data and speech this time have been somewhat moderate.

So, if we look at the surface, they are still stubborn and refuse to talk about the specific interest rate cut event. If we look at the fundamentals, the current situation is better than when the non-agricultural data was released.

And the most important thing is that the bottom of the day before yesterday will be difficult to break in the future, and a correction is reasonable. Looking back at the past market, it was also upward in fluctuations, rather than achieved overnight.

I have also given advance warning of this point in my article on the 11th.

The most crucial thing is still the interest rate cut, so when will the interest rate be cut?

This is hard to guess, we can only express our own opinions.

Personally, I think it will not exceed the November election.

There are political factors involved here. In fact, the previous approval of Ethereum’s spot ETF was also a compromise by the SEC with politics and was also related to the election.

The SEC and the Federal Reserve should be independent institutions and should not be affected by the general election. However, since there are a large number of venture capital voters in the United States, any policy that is unfavorable to venture capital will affect Biden's votes and become a tool for Trump to attack.

Trump also said that "he would view any move by the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates before the election as a political move by Powell to help Biden."

Deep down, Trump hopes that interest rates will not be cut before his election, because cutting interest rates before the election will increase votes for Biden. The former would rather cut interest rates after his election in order to win over the hearts and support of the people.

He has also made it clear that if he is elected, he will replace both the SEC Chairman and the Federal Reserve Chairman.

In addition, Democratic lawmakers recently wrote letters asking the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, and with interest rate cuts in Europe and Canada, Biden is now under a lot of pressure.

Based on this analysis, will Biden and the Federal Reserve delay cutting interest rates until after the election?

Brother Wang is skeptical about this.

Some people may say, the Federal Reserve is so tough and speaks so firmly, how could it possibly cut interest rates ahead of schedule?

I can only say that anyone would change an unfavorable situation for their own benefit, even if it is inappropriate and they lose their job. What's the point of talking about that?

Being tough is a habit and a means. Even if the interest rate is cut next month, the Federal Reserve will still be tough this month and will continue to be tough when the interest rate is cut.

Therefore, I personally think that a rate cut is very likely between July and September, and September is more reasonable. #美联储何时降息？