last night#CPI Under the circumstances of unexpected favorable conditions, it can be said that the time and place are right. If#FOMC会议 If it can convey a dovish signal, the market is probably ready to gamble.#7月降息 The possibility of BTC breaking the previous high is just around the corner. But the reality is that the Fed's dot plot and Powell's speech are neutral and hawkish. The dot plot conveys the number of interest rate cuts this year, from three 75 basis points in the March meeting to one 25 basis point now. Powell still had an ambiguous attitude when answering reporters' questions, maintaining his usual style of "playing Tai Chi".


The Fed needs to balance economic growth, inflation and employment when making decisions. At present, the Fed is not too worried about economic growth, although in recent months#GDP It has slowed down, but it is still within an acceptable range. The inflation problem is quite serious. If it cannot be suppressed, it will increase the cost of social governance and even cause a crisis of public confidence in the Federal Reserve. The Federal Reserve has long suffered from "PTSD" in dealing with inflation. Every time inflation is high, it has tried various ways to control it, but it often stagnates for a long time after it drops to a certain range. The current CPI has been hovering between 3-3.7% for more than a year. Governing inflation is like taking hormones. The more you take, the stronger your dependence. Inflation itself has a relatively strong viscosity. Even if inflation is seen to ease, it is easy to rebound once interest rate cuts are started. Relying on inflation to meet the target for interest rate cuts is bound to be a process of repeated trials and long-term torture. There are two special factors that have not been able to suppress this round of inflation. One is that US government spending has replaced a large degree of private consumption, and the government is not sensitive to interest rates; the other is that the AI ​​dividend is gradually being transmitted to the upstream and downstream industrial chains. Although traditional consumption is weak, high-tech companies are still creating wealth. The previous influx of illegal immigrants has led to a clear oversupply in the labor market, and the hourly wage issue is not yet obvious. With the employment ratio reaching a high point in 2008 and immigration policies tightened, U.S. wages are likely to continue to rise in the coming months. The FOMC meeting raised its forecast for inflation data such as PCE this year in the economic forecast given last night, and this is not groundless.


The FOMC meeting downplayed the importance of rising unemployment this time, claiming that there are countermeasures. But it also leaves room for future rate cuts. The entry point is that the employment situation deteriorates, that is, when the number of non-agricultural employment falls below 120,000, a rescue-type rate cut will be considered. Last Friday's non-agricultural data and unemployment rate, two obviously negatively correlated data, gave a double increase result, and the market reaction was complicated. The U.S. Treasury yield rose instantly, and the overall volatility of the U.S. stock market was not large. BTC fell slightly after the results were announced, but fell sharply in the second half of the night. I think the cryptocurrency market was confused when it first saw the data, because the excessively high unemployment rate filled the expectations of rate cuts, but the number of jobs exceeded expectations and showed that strong employment and rate cuts were hopeless. It was not until the late night that I realized that the non-farm payrolls were more important: this has to do with the difference between U.S. stocks and BTC. As risky assets, both are deeply dependent on interest rate cuts and U.S. dollar liquidity. Against the backdrop of insufficient liquidity, U.S. stocks at least have the ROI bull market brought about by AI financial reports (dependent on performance returns), and because of the fundamentals of stocks, sufficient employment is actually good for the economy, which offsets the effect of lowering expectations for interest rate cuts. Since the first round of ETF position building stagnated, BTC's recent inflows are mostly a means for hedge funds to earn CME futures premiums, which is unlikely to have a substantial boost to BTC, which is purely affected by the delayed interest rate cuts caused by the hot job market.


In general, after the Fed's statement, BTC's efforts to hype the expectation of interest rate cuts since the beginning of May have achieved at least a 10,000-point increase, but it has come to an end. The previously hyped-up coin price has lost the support of the expectation of interest rate cuts, and needs to go down to find a new fulcrum in order to regain reasonable pricing. At present, around 65k is where the on-chain chips are more fully traded, and there should be a certain price consensus. After stabilizing, it will be a shock-based trend until the next market view changes. Before a new narrative comes, BTC can only rely on the current strong US stocks and maintain its position with difficulty in the context of poor liquidity.