Neither CPI nor the Fed's interest rate is the most important at this stage

What is important is the timing and number of interest rate cuts this year. The latest dot plot, i.e., interest rate forecast, will be released tonight

The Fed has already reduced core inflation from above 7% to 2.7%, achieving a major victory in the fight against inflation. However, the Fed does not intend to take any action and is still committed to reducing inflation to 2%.

If the dot plot:

4-1. The dot plot shows that there is a high probability of at least 2 interest rate cuts this year, which is a huge positive, indicating that the first interest rate cut will be in September

4-2. The dot plot shows that there is still a possibility of 1-2 interest rate cuts this year, indicating that the interest rate cut in September is still uncertain, but due to insufficient liquidity in June, July, and August, it is likely to go through a long-term oscillation correction

4-3. The dot plot shows that there will be no more than one interest rate cut this year, indicating that the interest rate cut will be in December at the earliest, so the market will have to wait at least half a year, which is a huge negative. $BTC $ETH $SOL #美联储利率决策即将公布 #第55期新币挖矿IO #IO价格预测