Is the crypto market in the "preparation stage" for the next bull market?
At this stage, the cryptocurrency market's expectations for the future are mainly affected by changes in monetary policy, and the market seems to be in the preparation stage for the next bull market. Zhou Lele, deputy chief operating officer of Shengli Securities, said that as prices rise, the inflow of over-the-counter capital (ETF) and the stable holding strategy on the market may be resonating, which will become the key factor in the upward trend of Bitcoin prices and the recovery of volatility.
The core concerns of the future market include:
1. When will the Fed start to cut interest rates, and the expectation gap between the 300,000 non-agricultural unemployment figures and the early timing of the interest rate cut.
2. After the approval of the Ethereum ETF, the recovery of old Defi projects, and the market's overly pessimistic expectations of the Ethereum ETF.
3. The expectation gap between the shift in the sentiment of Bitcoin ETF capital inflows and the fundamentals of the virtual asset market.
4. The expectation gap between macroeconomic trends and actual market reactions.
Overall, the correction of the cryptocurrency market this week did not affect the overall trend of the market. Some market observers pointed out that some positive signs during the sell-off may indicate a rapid economic recovery. In fact, Fed Chairman Powell revealed at the Stanford Business School Forum two months ago that most FOMC members believe that it is appropriate to lower the policy interest rate at some point this year. For this reason, the Fed still needs greater confidence to ensure that inflation can be sustainably reduced to the target level of 2%. There are risks in cutting interest rates too early or too late. It is too early to judge whether the recent inflation data is just a temporary fluctuation.
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