The expectation that the spot BTC ETF will be approved coupled with the weakening US dollar and U.S. bond yields have allowed BTC to break through the $40,000 mark. The market is now very optimistic that the ETF can be approved in early January. However, we have analyzed before and do not believe that entry into the cryptocurrency market is currently strictly restricted, whether it is Coinbase or already listed crypto ETPs such as BITO and GBTC, or the Bitcoin and Ethereum futures markets.

According to a survey by Coinbase in February 2023, 20% of Americans own cryptocurrencies, compared to 21% of Americans who hold stocks directly, showing that the penetration rate of cryptocurrencies in the United States is already high (such as CB survey data not too outrageous), there is limited room for further expansion. So I tend to think that whether the Bitcoin ETF fails or succeeds again in January, it may mean the emergence of a short-term top.