Occasional outbreaks of these two highly contagious disasters, fear and greed, will always occur in the investment world. The timing of these epidemics is unpredictable, and the duration and contagion of the market insanity they cause are equally unpredictable. Since we can never predict the arrival or departure of any one disaster, our goal should be modest: we simply want to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful. --Warren Buffett
At 2 a.m. on the 8th, Bitcoin fell sharply from above $71,000 to around $69,000. The market reacted because the U.S. Department of Labor announced non-farm payroll data for May. The surge of 272,000 jobs far exceeded the expected 190,000. At the same time, experts predicted that the pace of interest rate cuts would be hindered again.
The bitcoin market trend was stagnant on Monday, but it rose to around $70,195 at 23:00 in the evening, and then entered a volatile decline mode. When everyone thought that the price of bitcoin would continue to fluctuate between 70,200 and 69,000 in the previous few days, it was revealed that after 19 consecutive working days of net inflows into U.S. spot ETFs, on the 20th working day, the U.S. spot bitcoin ETF had a net outflow of approximately $64.9 million, causing the price of bitcoin to fall like a waterfall. As of the time of writing, the price was quoted at $67,759, a drop of 3.57% in the past 24 hours.
First of all, I would like to congratulate all the investors who have seen and followed my article on Monday (10th): “Daxian Talks about Coins: Bitcoin will be on holiday on June 10th for the Dragon Boat Festival, and will consolidate and wait for a breakthrough”. I suggested that if Bitcoin rebounds to below 70,000, short it and target 68,800. Although I did not give the most perfect profit target (around 67,700), I succeeded in taking more than 1,200 points. Thank you all for forwarding, commenting on and liking my article, which added more motivation to my writing.
Bitcoin four-hour chart
According to the current Bitcoin 4H level chart, we can see that the current price of Bitcoin is at the lower track of the Bollinger Bands. At the same time, the openings of the upper and lower tracks are relatively wide, indicating that the current market is in an oversold state and the market volatility is relatively large.
Secondly, according to the MACD indicator in the 4H level, the current DIF line is below the DEA line with a large gap, and the green bar chart is gradually increasing, indicating that the bearish trend is dominant and prices will continue to fall in the short term.
Finally, according to the KDJ indicator in the 4H level, the K line value and the D line value are both below 30, which are in an oversold state, and the J line value is even lower than 0, which further confirms the signal of the oversold pattern formation.
Comprehensive analysis: According to the 4H level chart, KDJ and Bollinger Bands show that Bitcoin is currently in an oversold state and there is a possibility of a rebound, but MACD shows that the short force is relatively strong. Next, we need to pay close attention to whether there will be a reversal signal, such as the DIF line in the MACD begins to cross the DEA line, whether the histogram turns from green to red, the J line value in the KDJ indicator rises above 0, and the price is supported by the lower track of the Bollinger Band and rebounds.
To sum up, the following suggestions are given for reference:
Bitcoin rebounds to below 68400 and continues to short, with a target of 67300 and a defense of 68800.
Writing time: (2024-06-11, 14:00)
(Text - Daxian Talks about Coins) We hereby declare: Internet publishing has delays, and the above suggestions are for reference only.
