Analysts said selling pressure in the futures market offset the price increases that could have been driven by ETF inflows.

In the last 19 days, Bitcoin’s spot price has not fluctuated significantly, although Bitcoin ETFs have experienced significant inflows. The reason behind this phenomenon may be that large hedge funds have adopted a strategy: while they are buying ETFs, they are also selling in the futures market. This short-selling of futures contracts effectively balances the possible inflows of ETF funds. the potential impact of price increases.

Crypto investment firm CMS Holdings recently published an observation about the Bitcoin market on its social media platform X, stating:

According to the Commitment of Traders report released by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), hedge funds’ net short positions on Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) Bitcoin futures contracts have reached 18,175 contracts, a record high. This shows that hedge funds hold a large number of bearish positions in the Bitcoin futures market.

This surge in short positions may be related to the basis trade strategy, in which hedge funds use Bitcoin ETFs as a tool to buy Bitcoin, and the prices of these ETFs closely track the spot market price of Bitcoin. At the same time, these funds hedge or speculate by selling futures contracts, thereby establishing a hedge position between futures and spot prices.

In this way, hedge funds can take advantage of the price difference between futures and spot to profit, especially as the futures contract approaches expiration, when that difference is likely to narrow.

The research department of the BitMEX exchange noted that when major brokers accepted Bitcoin ETFs as acceptable collateral, this may have facilitated greater basis trading activity. This acceptance increased the flexibility and efficiency of using Bitcoin ETFs as a means of entering and exiting basis trades, which may have increased the willingness of market participants to utilize this trading strategy. By using ETFs as collateral, hedge funds and other investors were able to gain leverage, which in turn may have increased the size of their short positions in the futures market.

While Bitcoin ETFs have attracted significant inflows, selling pressure in the futures market has effectively neutralized any upward impact that these ETF purchases might have had on the price of Bitcoin. This means that while positive inflows into ETFs should theoretically push the price of Bitcoin higher, selling activity in the futures market has acted as a counterweight, preventing significant price increases. This dynamic suggests that the market has complex interactions between different trading instruments that can offset the effects of a single factor.

The fluctuation of futures open interest (OI) reflects the diversity of sentiment and strategies among market participants. This fluctuation may indicate that some traders are hedging through the futures market to protect them from future price uncertainties. At the same time, there may also be traders engaging in speculative trading, who open or close positions based on their predictions of short-term market trends in the hope of profiting from price fluctuations.

An increase in open interest generally means that new trading activity is increasing and market interest in a particular asset is growing, while a decrease in open interest may indicate that market participants are exiting the market or closing their positions. These changes can provide a useful indicator for observing market sentiment, especially in the short term. However, they can also mask the true situation in the market, as fluctuations in open interest do not always correspond directly to price movements, but are affected by a combination of factors. #ETF #期货 #比特币 #价格行情 $BTC

Conclusion:

Although the Bitcoin ETF has experienced significant inflows in the near term, showing the market's continued interest in the cryptocurrency, the price of Bitcoin has not experienced the expected sharp increase. Behind this phenomenon, the active short selling behavior of hedge funds in the futures market played a key role. By taking net short positions on exchanges like CME, these funds effectively hedge against the potential upward price pressure from ETF inflows. Additionally, the popularity of basis trading strategies and the practice of prime brokers accepting Bitcoin ETFs as collateral further adds to the complexity of market hedging and speculation.

Meanwhile, the fluctuations in futures open interest reveal different sentiments and strategies among market participants, indicating that there may be uncertainty in the market in the short term. Although hedge fund shorting and selling pressure in the futures market have balanced the Bitcoin price at present, this equilibrium state may not last long. As market conditions change and new market forces emerge, new trends in Bitcoin prices may emerge. Investors and market analysts will continue to pay close attention to these dynamics to gain insight into the future direction of the cryptocurrency market.