The 2024 US presidential election is about to kick off, and cryptocurrency has become an important topic of discussion for the first time, with its importance and influence reaching unprecedented heights. Both Trump and Biden, the two main candidates, have to face this rapidly emerging market and incorporate their attitudes and policy proposals towards cryptocurrency into their campaign strategies.
1. Cryptocurrency: From the fringe to campaign chips
The history of cryptocurrency development can be described as a history of innovation and controversy. From the birth of Bitcoin in 2009 to the existence of thousands of cryptocurrencies today, cryptocurrency has gone through a process from scratch, from doubt to acceptance, and then gradually moving towards the mainstream. Cryptocurrency was initially just an attempt and experiment by a few technology geeks. Over time, its value and influence have continued to increase, attracting more and more investors and institutions to join this emerging market.
Due to its decentralized and anonymous characteristics, cryptocurrency is also accompanied by regulatory challenges and legal disputes during its development. Governments and financial institutions have different attitudes towards it. Some countries actively accept it and try to incorporate it into the regulatory framework, while others take a strict restriction or even prohibit it.
1.1 Analysis of the political game behind Ethereum ETF
Following the approval and listing of the Bitcoin spot ETF, the approval of the Ethereum spot ETF can be said to be an important milestone in the cryptocurrency market, sending an important positive signal and marking the gradual increase in the U.S. government's acceptance of cryptocurrencies such as Ethereum.
In the initial application stage, many Ethereum ETF proposals were rejected by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for various reasons. The reasons for rejection mainly focused on the controversy over whether Ethereum is a security, market manipulation, and an imperfect regulatory framework. In the critical approval process, the competition of political forces has become an important factor. Democratic lawmakers who have criticized similar decisions in the past have mostly remained silent. As the 2024 U.S. presidential election approaches, major political parties and candidates hope to establish an image among voters that supports technological innovation and financial market reform. The approval of the Ethereum ETF can be seen as a positive signal from the government to the cryptocurrency market, which will help win the support of young voters and the technology industry.
1.2 Cryptocurrency policy is becoming an important issue in the US election
In the 2024 U.S. presidential election, cryptocurrency is becoming an important topic of discussion and a bargaining chip for voters. The attitudes and policy proposals of the two major candidates, Trump and Biden, towards cryptocurrency will not only directly affect their voter base, but may also have a profound impact on the entire cryptocurrency market.
In the 2020 election, minorities and young people are the key groups for Biden to win. Data shows that the ownership rate of cryptocurrencies in these groups is relatively high, and whether they can win their support has become an important aspect of the struggle between Trump and Biden. For many voters, cryptocurrency is not only an investment tool, but also a symbol of freedom and innovation. Especially among young voters and technology geeks, cryptocurrency has a broad support base. Therefore, both Trump and Biden have to include policy proposals on cryptocurrency in their campaign strategies to win the support of these voters.
In the 2024 U.S. presidential election, crypto companies such as Coinbase and Ripple, as well as crypto-supporting venture capital firms such as a16z, have announced investments in cryptocurrency super PACs, attempting to gain a voice for the crypto industry through “cash power.”
2. US cryptocurrency policy and key points of the election
The government's policy attitude directly affects the price fluctuations and investor confidence in the cryptocurrency market. The US government's policy attitude towards cryptocurrencies has a great impact on the trend of the global market. As a global financial center, the US policy changes not only directly affect the domestic market, but also have an important demonstration effect on global investors and regulatory policies of other countries.
In terms of regulation, the US government has always been cautious and conservative, focusing mainly on preventing market manipulation, protecting investors and preventing financial crimes. The US government regulates the cryptocurrency market through multiple agencies such as the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN).
2.1 Trump’s changing attitude towards cryptocurrencies
During the Trump administration, the U.S. government's attitude towards cryptocurrencies has undergone a complex evolution. Initially, the Trump administration was skeptical and negative about cryptocurrencies, believing that they lack intrinsic value and are easily used for illegal activities. In 2019, Trump publicly stated on Twitter that he did not like Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, saying that they are "not currencies, their value is highly volatile and has no real basis." He also emphasized that cryptocurrencies may be used for illegal activities, including drug trafficking and money laundering. This negative attitude had a negative impact on the cryptocurrency market in the early days of Trump's administration. The market reaction at the time was relatively negative, and many investors were uneasy about the future cryptocurrency policy of the United States.
Over time, the Trump administration's attitude has gradually changed. In December 2018, Trump appointed Bitcoin supporter Mick Mulvaney as White House Chief of Staff, an appointment that was seen as a signal that the Trump administration was beginning to be more open to cryptocurrencies. In addition, during his term, Trump signed several executive orders involving fintech and blockchain technology, aimed at promoting innovation and technological development.
In the 2024 election, Trump's attitude changed 180 degrees. He not only publicly expressed his support for the development of cryptocurrencies, but also made remarks about "ensuring that the future of cryptocurrencies and Bitcoin happens in the United States." He also said that if he is re-elected president, he will commute the sentence of Ross Ulbricht, the founder of "Silk Road", on his first day in office. Trump also accepted cryptocurrency donations during his campaign, trying to win voter support through policy adjustments. As of June 5, the value of crypto assets held by Trump's address has exceeded $30 million, thanks to the growth of his Meme coins.
However, on June 4, Trump was found guilty of all 34 felony counts of falsifying business records in a criminal trial in Manhattan, becoming the first former president to be convicted in U.S. history. This verdict adds an unpredictable new variable to the 2024 U.S. presidential election.
2.2 Biden Administration’s Policy on Cryptocurrency
For most of the time since taking office, the Biden administration has been conservative and cautious about cryptocurrencies, focusing mainly on strengthening supervision and preventing risks. In the early days of its presidency, the Biden administration strengthened supervision of the cryptocurrency market through agencies such as the Treasury Department and the SEC, and issued a series of regulatory regulations for cryptocurrency exchanges and market participants.
As the election approaches, the Biden administration has gradually adjusted its policy stance. The Biden campaign has recently begun to contact some crypto industry experts to seek guidance on its crypto policy. On May 23, the U.S. House of Representatives passed the 21st Century Financial Innovation and Technology Act (FIT21), which will transfer regulatory authority over digital currencies from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to the more industry-friendly Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and will more clearly define the standards that make crypto tokens securities or commodities. Biden announced that he would not veto the FIT21 cryptocurrency bill if it is passed.
In addition, another US presidential candidate, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., also affirmed encryption technology, saying that "cryptocurrency is a symbol of freedom and transparency." During the campaign, he bought 21 bitcoins and bought 3 bitcoins for each of his children to show his support for using cryptocurrency as a trading currency.
2.3 Key time points of this US election
As the election progresses, the candidates' attitudes and policy proposals towards cryptocurrencies will have a significant impact on the market. Especially at key election nodes, candidates' policy statements and campaign activities may cause drastic market fluctuations. The following are some key time nodes in this US presidential election:
- June 27: First debate
Presidential debates often have a huge impact on the election situation, and the first debate is particularly important. The candidates' attitudes and policy proposals on cryptocurrencies will be more exposed in the debate, and the market may react quickly based on the results of the debate.
- July 15-18: Republican National Convention
During the Republican convention, candidates will formally accept the nomination
, and released his campaign platform. Trump may further elaborate on his cryptocurrency policy during the convention, and the market will pay close attention to his remarks and policy direction.
- August 17-20: Democratic National Convention
During the Democratic convention, Biden will formally accept the nomination and release his campaign platform. The Biden administration's cryptocurrency policy will become the focus of attention, especially its attitude towards the regulatory framework.
- November 5: Presidential Election Day
The election results will have a direct and far-reaching impact on the market. Trump and Biden's different attitudes towards cryptocurrencies may lead to drastic market fluctuations, and investors need to pay close attention to the election dynamics.
3. Which tokens will be popular in the US election?
The cryptocurrency policy in the 2024 US election will have a profound impact on the market, and certain tokens will benefit from policy changes and market expectations. Here are several tokens that may perform well during the election:
3.1 Bitcoin (BTC)
As the most important cryptocurrency in the market, no matter which candidate wins, their policy changes will directly affect the market performance of Bitcoin. If Trump or other candidates express support for cryptocurrency, Bitcoin may usher in a wave of rising prices.
3.2 Ethereum (ETH)
Ethereum's technical foundation and wide application make it the focus of market attention. In particular, the approval of the Ethereum spot ETF indicates that the market's acceptance of Ethereum has greatly increased. If the government policy is positive about Ethereum, the price of Ethereum may rise further.
3.3 Meme coins (such as DOGE and SHIB)
Meme coins are favored by some investors due to their high risk and high return. In the context of Trump holding Meme coin assets, if he is elected or expresses support for the Meme coin market, related tokens may be sought after by the market.
3.4 Security Tokens (such as USDT, USDC)
Investors often seek out security tokens as a safe haven during times of market volatility. If market volatility is high during the election, security tokens could become a safe haven for investors.
3.5 Special field tokens (such as NFT tokens, DeFi tokens)
If candidates express support for blockchain technology and innovative applications, special field tokens such as NFT tokens and DeFi tokens may have development opportunities.
in conclusion
In the 2024 US presidential election, cryptocurrency, as an important issue and campaign chip, will have a profound impact on the direction of the market. The policy propositions and attitudes of the candidates will directly affect investor confidence and market expectations. Investors need to pay close attention to the election dynamics, especially key nodes and policy statements, to seize market opportunities and avoid risks. In this period full of variables and opportunities, understanding the policy propositions of the candidates and the market reaction can help find investment opportunities in the volatility.
