1. Wave theory analysis
On the 1-hour chart, we can see some clear fluctuations and trends:
Big trend analysis:
Starting point of wave A: at a high of about $71,100 in the figure.
End point of wave A: at about US$68,300 (down).
Wave B rebound: at about $69,988.6 (rebound high).
Next, according to the wave theory, we may see a downward wave C:
Fibonacci Expansion
Wave A length: 71100 - 68300 = $2800
100% expansion level: 68300 - 2800 = 65500 USD
138.2% extension: 68300 - (2800 * 1.382) ≈ 64460 USD
161.8% extension: 68300 - (2800 * 1.618) ≈ 63774 USD
C wave target
Initial goal: $65,500
Deep Targets: $64,460 and $63,774
2. Dow Theory Analysis
According to Dow Theory, we can analyze the changes in highs and lows to identify market trends:
Current Trend: The chart shows a downward trend after a high of about $71,100. The current rebound pattern has not yet formed a new high.
Key support level: around $69,500 (multi-layer support level marked in the figure). If it falls below this level, it may prompt further decline.
Historical resistance level: around 69,900. If it breaks through, it will try to reach above 70,000.
3. Technical indicator analysis
RSI (Relative Strength Index)
Currently, the RSI is above 50, indicating that the market momentum is relatively strong, but it has not entered the overbought (above 70) or oversold (below 30) area. Further observation of the RSI trend is needed to determine the market direction.
CCI (Commodity Channel Index)
CCI is currently showing a positive value, but not yet extremely overbought (above 200), suggesting that the market still has upward momentum, but signals of continued upward movement or entering overbought need to be observed.
4. Moving Averages
Observe the moving average in the figure:
Short-term moving averages (such as MA20 and MA50): Currently show a relatively mild upward trend. If the short-term moving averages continue to rise, more obvious upward momentum will be formed.
Long-term moving average (such as MA200): If the short-term price stands firmly above the long-term moving average, the buy signal can be strengthened.
Key point: Whether the price continues to be above the short, medium and long moving averages will determine the trend judgment.
5. Volume
The chart shows that trading volume shows signs of amplification at key points, and it is necessary to pay attention to changes in trading volume to assist in determining the trend direction.
Comprehensive analysis and trading strategies
Short-term swing trading strategy
Entry point: The point for increasing positions is considered to be breaking through key resistance (such as above 69,900), and the point for shorting is considered to be breaking through key support (such as below 69,500).
Target position: The long position target is 70,000 and above, and the short position target is 65,500 and below.
Stop loss: The stop loss for long orders can be set below 69,500, and the stop loss for short orders can be set above 70,000.
Signal confirmation
Long order confirmation signal: RSI rises to the overbought area (above 70) and CCI further rises above 100.
Short order confirmation signal: RSI moves below the neutral zone or falls below 30, and CCI falls below -100.
Observe changes in trading volume: Pay close attention to the trading volume at key points. If there is an increase in volume, the signal will be more reliable.
in conclusion
Through the comprehensive analysis of wave theory, Dow theory and technical indicators, BTC is likely to break through near the key point. There is a possibility of short-term upward or downward movement. It is necessary to carefully observe the changes in price, moving average and volume, and set stop loss with caution.
