A significant discrepancy between non-farm payroll data and ADP employment data often signals a looming recession. Caution is needed, as once a real recession signal appears, the market will experience significant volatility. BTC failed to break through the previous high this week and fell back again, with various altcoins experiencing substantial declines. We still believe that market risks have not been fully released and that it is necessary to wait for more positive signals. For contract traders, we recommend using quantitative strategies rather than manual operations.