Today's data is good. First of all, the unemployment rate exceeded the expectations of many investors and rose to 4%, which is indeed in line with the expectations of the Federal Reserve, especially what Powell said last time, that if it exceeds 4%, the pace of interest rate cuts will be reconsidered (meaning to speed up the pace of interest rate cuts). Generally speaking, rising unemployment rates lead to a decline in employment, but today's data is the same as what I said before. Although the unemployment rate has risen, employment is also rising, and it has risen sharply, directly rising by more than 100,000 people (revised to 165,000 people).
It is speculated that the employment situation caused by immigration issues may be the reason for the increase in employment, and it has risen sharply. This is really beyond my imagination. I am very sorry. I can think that it may increase, but I didn't expect it to increase so much.
Moreover, the annual and monthly rates of wages are rising, which is also something the Federal Reserve does not want to see. Under these data, even if the unemployment rate rises, it still represents a strong job market, so it is expected that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates. The intensity is declining, which is why the market is bearish.
But 4% is indeed in line with Powell's statement. Whether it will be adjusted due to the unemployment rate depends on the decision of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting next week. There is a high probability that the interest rate meeting in June will remain unchanged. The key point needs to be how the dot plot is released.
