BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes has previously reminded everyone to pay close attention to the trend of the U.S. dollar against the yen. If the yen falls sharply to the 200 level, it will trigger a game between China, the United States and Japan, which will eventually lead to money printing and a sharp depreciation of legal currency. Bitcoin will see a downward trend. 1,000,000.
(Arthur Hayes: The devaluation of the Japanese yen to 200 will accelerate the upward momentum of Bitcoin, BTC looks at millions of dollars)
Interest rate differences between Japan and other countries begin to narrow
At that time, Hayes pointed out that if the interest rate differential between the United States and Japan persists, investors will continue to sell the yen, causing the yen to continue to depreciate. This will damage China's export competitiveness and force the RMB to depreciate accordingly. However, the Biden administration may not be able to bear the depreciation of the RMB before the election because it will continue to lose American jobs and cause him to lose the election.
But now things have changed! In addition to China's reduction of required reserve ratio to provide market liquidity at the beginning of the year to save the economy, Arthur Hayes also compiled policy interest rate charts of various central banks, including the following:
Already starting a cycle of interest rate cuts: Bank of Canada (purple line), European Central Bank ECB (yellow line)
Interest rate cuts are expected to follow: the United States (white line), the Bank of England (red line)
Still at the low 0.1%: Bank of Japan (green line)
(The Bank of Canada took the first shot at cutting interest rates, and the stock prices of Huida and TSMC continued to hit new highs)
The US dollar depreciates, go long Bitcoin, and then shit coins!
Hayes believes that if the market believes that the interest rate differential between the yen and the US dollar, euro, pound and other fiat currencies will narrow over time. It will buy the yen and sell everything else! In the face of the depreciation of global legal currencies, Bitcoin will be the best-performing asset.
June’s central bank fireworks have kicked off as the People’s Bank of China, the Bank of Canada and the European Central Bank have all cut interest rates, which will lift cryptocurrencies out of the northern hemisphere summer slump. That's not Hayes' base case scenario though (he originally didn't expect it to start until August).
However, the trend is clear.
Central banks are beginning an easing cycle. Go long Bitcoin, then shitcoins!
This article Arthur Hayes: Central banks of various countries have started a cycle of interest rate cuts and are going long on Bitcoin and shit coins. It first appeared on Chain News ABMedia.
