During the week, Bitcoin moved in the range of 70600-67600, ending the week closer to the lower limit.
Market capitalization lost about 40 billion, the dominance index decreased slightly.
Features of market behavior this week:
Bitcoin was weaker than alts. They remain stable, fall less, and many have shown significant growth over the week.
Leaders for the week -NOT, JASMY, ORDI, TIA, CHZ
Among the memes, PEPE looks good, and the PolitFi sector (tokens associated with the name TRUMP) is also growing rapidly.
The fear index remains close to extreme greed levels (hence the resilience of alts and the boom of the meme sector).
Bitcoin has formed a trading range over the past 2 weeks with a lower boundary at 66500-66000 and an upper boundary at 70800-71500
This range is within the large 59000-71500 range that Bitcoin has been in since late February and from which there have been 2 extreme exits in these 3 months - to the ATH at 73777 in March, and the spill to 56500 in early May.
A special feature of this week was the situation on the stock market.
For the first time in 6 weeks, we see a weekly decline in stock indices. The S&P 500 closed at 5,205 yesterday.
At the same time, the fall occurred against the backdrop of data on inflation and the labor market, which are favorable for the markets. Bond yields and the dollar index reacted to these data with a fall, which usually causes the indices to rise.
But this time everything went wrong.
The reason for the anomaly is the geopolitical situation (briefly in the previous post), as well as the understanding that the economy has gone down (GDP data indicates this). And if the economic situation is interrupted by the actions of the Federal Reserve, then the influence of the geopolitical factor is not predictable.
So far, the fall in stock indices has not been significant, given the scale of the previous growth. A move below 5180, and especially below the psychological level of 5000 for the S&P 500, would be a sign of a serious correction, with possible emergency action by the Fed.
I wonder how IBIT will behave in a situation where the stock market is falling? There are arguments both for “it will fall along with the indices” and for “it will grow, since there is no economic connection between the fall of shares of tech giants (which have the maximum weight in the index) and Bitcoin.”
The criterion of truth is practice. So we'll see soon.
On the negative side, Biden vetoed a bill that would have allowed highly regulated financial firms to hold crypto assets (including Bitcoin).
It previously passed Congress and was expected to become law. Considering that there is a fierce struggle for the crypto audience, it seems that they want to get rid of the crazy grandfather even in his close circle. He will now lose the fight for the crypto audience.
This weekend I expect Bitcoin to be in a range with the lower limit at 67000-66500 and the upper limit at 68800-69000
An alternative option is to consolidate above 69000
