The macro economy is in a state of complete deviance from common sense. Whether it is the cycle of long-term and short-term interest rate inversion, economic fundamentals and market expectations, geopolitical emergencies, or the conflict in the performance of major asset prices, etc., they are constantly reshaping a new anti-globalization economic cognition. As shown in the figure
Secondly, a large number of US bonds have been sold off in the past few days. I think the reasons are mixed, and cannot be simply attributed to the pessimistic PCE data.
In addition, the software sector plummeted yesterday, dragging down SPX and NDX. However, macroeconomic data was relatively mild, Williams' speech was dovish, and long-term interest rates stabilized slightly.
The S&P index is still very resilient. The software sector suffered a poor performance, experiencing the largest single-day drop in 10 years -5.4%. CRM plummeted 20%; PATH fell 35%. Dell also failed after the market, falling 15%! In addition, pension funds also reduced their holdings by $9 billion before June.
However, SPX closed down only 0.60%, and the slow decline showed that the market gamma hedge absorbed a lot of selling. But on the other hand, we should be alert that VIX is rising, and we need to see whether the motivation of hedge funds to sell Vol will continue.
PCE is in line with expectations, and even the June data is in line with expectations. Theoretically speaking, a rate cut in July is not a matter of course! When I say that there will be a rate cut in July, it is by no means an optimistic expectation. It is an extremely pessimistic view of dealing with massive bond issuance under the negative interest rate differential! Even if the interest rate is cut immediately in July, there will not be enough liquidity.
operate
Layout the strong track of the market, with AI, RWA, MEME, SOL ecology as the main line, combined with market sentiment monitoring tools, combined with on-chain data, mainly do sector rotation, double the principal, guided by market sentiment, switch arbitrage. In the case of insufficient incremental funds in the market, hot money grouping is the most sensible strategy, similar to A-shares hitting the board. If there is a window guided by the media community, the success rate is higher. For example, the recent#NOT#FLOKİ summary: It is crucial to be flexible and move with the market, and not to solidify thinking and path dependence. In addition, it is also very important for large funds to group together.
OMNI
The current trend is a consolidation structure that is ready to take off.
The main dealer may be waiting for BTC to close the monthly line before making a big move. The current price is still at the starting position, and the original plan does not need to be changed. The second support is 17.1~17.8, the stop loss is 15.5 (daily K entity), and the first target is temporarily set at 28~30
