The story I am going to tell you is generally known to those born in the 1970s. It is a true story that shocked the world and sparked a great debate in the mathematics community. Let me first tell you about this story. It is a very simple story:

In the 1990s, the American TV game show Let's Make a Deal was hosted by Monty Hall. The game was as follows: the contestants would see three closed doors, one of which had a car behind it. The contestants could win the car by choosing the door with the car behind it. There was a goat hidden behind each of the other two doors. When the contestant chose a door but did not open it, the host would open one of the remaining two doors, revealing one of the goats. The host would then ask the contestant if he wanted to change to another door that was still closed.

That is: as a contestant, would switching to a different door increase my chances of winning the car?

According to probability, if there is no car in the door opened by the host, then there must be a car in one of the remaining two doors, which is a 1/2 probability. At this time, the probability of the contestant changing or not changing is the same, both are 1/2, but in fact, the probability of winning the car after changing is 2/3. This is far beyond people's understanding, including many mathematicians who believe that: changing or not changing is a 1/2 probability.

In 1990, host Monty Hall sent this question to Marilyn vos Savant's column in Show Magazine, asking about this question. Marilyn vos Savant answered in her column: Yes, re-election would be more advantageous! After this statement appeared, it caused a fierce controversy in the United States: people sent thousands of complaint letters, many of which were science teachers or scholars. A reader from the University of Florida wrote: "There are enough math illiterates in this country. We don't want to have the world's highest IQ person to fill the number! It's a shame!" Another person wrote: "I think you are the goat!" Everett Harman of the US Army Research Institute wrote, "If even a PhD can make mistakes, I think this country will be in serious trouble soon."

I was in high school at the time. After seeing this report, it caused a heated debate in the class. I didn't believe that changing the door would increase the chance of winning. Later, I played a game with my classmates in the dormitory: 3 cups, one of which had coins in it, and the other two were empty. I and another classmate guessed which cup had coins in it. For example, we both guessed that A had coins in it, and the host opened C, which was empty. At this time, I continued to choose A, and my classmate chose B instead. After playing repeatedly, my classmate's chance of winning was obviously higher than mine. If you don't believe it, you can try it at home to see who wins 50 coins first!

This is the famous "Three-Door Problem", also known as the Monty Hall Paradox. Well, that's the story, everyone, do you understand?

Perhaps, many of my friends who trade in cryptocurrencies know this old story, but they have never connected it with cryptocurrencies! Then, I will transplant it into the trading strategy: Assume that there are three types of altcoins A, B, and C in the trading strategy, and you buy them at the same time. After buying A and holding it for two or three days, A and B have not risen. At this time, do you continue to hold A or switch to B?

Haha, when I say this, does everyone immediately think of the previous story? I must tell you that the result is that the probability of profit (or loss reduction) of currency exchange is higher! ! This result is similar to the Monty Hall paradox! Of course, there is a premise, I mean: ultra-short-term currency speculation.

For those who do medium- and long-term trading and swing trading, you don’t have to pay attention to this conclusion, and you don’t even have to read this article. Many people will not believe this result, just as many American mathematicians did not believe Marilyn vos Savant at the time. But this is indeed the result I have summarized over the years, believe it or not! Moreover, this also confirms the two market rules of short-term cryptocurrency trading: 1. Long-term trading will inevitably fall. 2. Only by continuous trial and error can you catch the bull coin!

I believe that these two rules are familiar to those who do short-term trading. What is the essential meaning of these two rules? Isn't it that if the altcoin you bought doesn't work, you should quickly change it! This indirectly proves that the probability of successful currency exchange will be greater! It confirms the Hall paradox theory. Well, now you should know why I rarely hold altcoins for more than 5 days? It is because this story touched me and made me understand that if you do short-term trading, you have to act like a short-term trade. Don't make the short-term trade into a medium-term trade, the medium-term trade into a long-term trade, and the long-term trade into a believer.

If the currency is not working, you must change it in time and stop loss in time. Only by continuous trial and error can you catch the big bull coin. Through my practice, it is okay to try one, two or even three altcoins. As long as you catch a bull coin, you will make back all the losses!

I believe that friends who have been in my member group for a long time have also discovered this phenomenon. Please remember this story: if the contestant does not change the door, the probability of winning is 1/2, and if he changes it, it is 2/3!

Short-term is short-term, don't forget the original intention, short-term becomes long-term! Long-term trading will inevitably fall! Only by continuous trial and error can you catch the bull coin! #荣耀时刻