These two days,#Mt.Gox The transfer of coins has been hyped by many people, and the similar views are nothing more than "these bitcoins are used to crash the market, and bitcoin plummets". Some so-called media like to spread the FUD sentiment of selling to the uninformed to attract attention. The first thing to be clear is that Mt.Gox's transfer of coins the day before yesterday was not a black swan event. As early as the "Notice of Confirmation of Regeneration Plan" in 2021, Mt.Gox had already announced the final compensation procedures and time to creditors. Everything was just executed according to the established plan, and the market had fully expected it.
The 140,000 bitcoins in the Mt.Gox cold wallet have only been transferred to different addresses. At least so far, there has been no real selling pressure, only panic among investors. Since creditors have the right to choose to receive bitcoins directly as compensation, it is estimated that only 30%-70% of the bitcoins will be sold directly. Such large transactions will be completed in the OTC market first, and will not put selling pressure on exchanges.
According to the resolution of the last creditors' meeting of Mt. Gox, the creditors will receive the money in several stages: small payments, one-time payments and final payments. The current stage, that is, small payments, will last until October 2024. As for the final payment, it will take another 5-9 years until the civil rehabilitation process is completely completed. The released bitcoins will most likely be slowly absorbed by the market within a few years.
In addition, whether the market faces selling pressure depends mainly on the reaction of a few very large creditors, because the largest 226 creditors hold 50.6% of the claims, and the two largest creditors Bitcoinica and MGIF hold nearly 20% of Mt.Gox's claims. These two companies have chosen to receive their compensation mainly in the form of Bitcoin rather than legal currency. Since these are professional investment companies, the claims compensation to be received may have been hedged by selling in the spot market or establishing short positions in the derivatives market, so it will not necessarily enter the market as a selling pressure. For the remaining small creditors, perhaps some will sell because of the high returns, but this kind of market crash will be more dispersed.
We have marked the operations of the Mt.Gox wallet in recent years in the BTC weekly chart. It can be seen that the market has not responded much to the transfer or sale of coins, and the price continues to grow. In summary, this kind of selling cannot affect the trend in the bull market. If you want to dig a deep hole, you can only do it in the context of a bear market with extremely low liquidity. Fortunately, we are not in this context at the moment. The Mt.Gox incident has been an unresolved negative for the market because it has not been completely resolved for many years and there are disputes. Now the compensation plan has technically minimized the adverse impact on the market. What the bull market lacks is chips. Once they are thrown out, the crazy bull market will start.#门头沟
