Yesterday, Bitcoin hit 70,000 US dollars and then fell back to 68,000 US dollars. Ethereum hit a high of 3,977 and then fell back. The overall market sentiment is obviously optimistic, and local concepts have been released. In addition to the meme sector, there are also new Binance coins headed by not, which have pulled up the market to varying degrees. These are all signs that the market is gradually entering opportunities.
Let me talk about the logic. From a macro perspective, there are relatively certain trend opportunities before the election. Although interest rate cuts may be repeated, the result is inevitable. Europe may start to cut interest rates around June, which is a good thing for the global capital market, which will increase liquidity. So whether the bull market is there or not, it is bound to be there. In the short term, looking for some new good opportunities is the only thing to do. At present, there is not enough water in the market to flood, so it is basically a rotation of sectors. When funds are crowded with memes, other sectors need to wait for signals, but when Ethereum starts to start, the alt market will be more optimistic, so I think the alt season will not be far away.
The market fell back this morning:
Why does this happen? Three reasons
1. The coins in Mentougou have started to move. More than 8,000 BTC worth 500 million have been withdrawn from the Mentougou wallet to an unknown wallet. Is the black swan really coming? Billions of BTC will be compensated before October this year, which is terrible.
2.70000 is only a stone’s throw away from the high point of 72000. There are a lot of locked-in shares above, including the locked-in shares from March to April this year and the locked-in shares in 21 years. After experiencing the panic of the plunge, it has finally risen back. The locked-in shares must be released. As long as it reaches this position, it is easy to be smashed down. Therefore, if there is no super positive news, 70,000 will be difficult to break. BTC at this price has also lost its appeal. It is better to buy ETH than BTC at present. ETH at least still has good news.
3. Before the release of the US PCE data for April on Friday night, big funds dare not act rashly. They are all waiting for the PCE data. If the data is lower than expected, they will buy in. Therefore, before Friday, the market is likely to fluctuate. According to past rules, there is a greater possibility of a decline before the data is released.
There are 14,200 bitcoins in the Mentougou wallet, about 1 billion US dollars. At present, the chain is aggregated. If compensation really starts, there is nothing to worry about. First of all, the market volume today will not have a big problem digesting 10 billion US dollars, because there are ETFs, and the market funds are much larger than before. Secondly, the compensation will not be paid all at once, but will definitely be paid in installments, so even if the market crashes, it will not be completed instantly.
Mentougou's compensation is short-term negative and long-term positive. The short-term decline will not affect the concept of the trend. The violent bull market in the second half of the year has not changed. At present, the 4-hour level needs to continue to fluctuate and adjust, and the originally opened upward channel has been destroyed again. Next, focus on the position of 66,000. If the 4-hour level falls to this position again, then the short-term will enter the decline verification support mode again.
There are some positive events in June that stimulate sentiment:
First, in May, the Federal Reserve announced that it would slow down the pace of QT in June. The monthly pace of reducing U.S. debt holdings would be slowed to US$25 billion, and the MBS ceiling of US$35 billion would remain unchanged. To put it bluntly, although there was no loosening of monetary easing, the outflow of water became less, which means that there was more water, which of course meant that liquidity (money) had increased in essence.
Will this positive news stimulate a surge in the risk market? Will BTC break through the previous high of 73,700? Here we first look at the data of current BTC long-term holders. As shown in the figure below. (The black line is the trend of BTC, and the orange line is the trend of BTC long-term holders)
At present, long-term holders have begun to increase their holdings, which shows that long-term holders are not interested in the current price and have no overflow of funds. There is still no big market for cottage stocks.
The previous question is, can we break through the previous high?
Personally, I think it's not that there is no hope. I believe that money will flow into BTC, driving the rise, but the macro data is still there, and both good and bad news will stimulate emotions.
(You can pay attention to the inflow of stablecoins in June. Although continuous inflow does not mean that the price will definitely rise, it will definitely not be very bad. There is also the inflow data of ETFs, which is the most direct feedback indicator of sentiment, that is, the trend from 1:00 to 6:00 a.m. Beijing time on weekdays)
To put it simply, even if it breaks 73,700, it may not rise much further, so the overflow funds are limited. There is still no hope for a big market for copycat stocks in June.
On the contrary, we can also look forward to the second event that will stimulate sentiment: Will the S1/S3 of ETH's ETF be approved in June and can trading begin?
If it can, it means that in the absence of a macro impact on sentiment, funds will flow into ETH, and perhaps it can drive a wave of market conditions in the ETH ecological sector, including the meme on ETH. If it does not pass, ETH will not rise sharply, but as expected, it will definitely not fall sharply, and the sentiment is still ok. It is estimated that the rotation of the copycat sector is still in the meme sector. Isn’t pepe a new high? And there are also new popular memes recently.
Of course, it does not mean that other sectors of the altcoin have no opportunities, but that there are no opportunities for large fluctuations like the meme sector. The low point of BTC is the low point of the altcoin. Once BTC breaks away from the low point and starts to rise, naturally the altcoin will also have a market. BTC has not risen much, so naturally the rotation of large capital sectors is limited.
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