July is in the countdown. After experiencing a difficult second quarter, we are looking forward to "poor May, desperate June and turnaround in July". When entering July, we also analyzed in advance that July is expected to turn around. According to historical data, July is the traditional peak season, with more rises than falls. The negative market news was also digested in the second quarter, and there should be no news affecting the performance in July. Looking back now, the market did experience a short "small spring" in early July. BTC once hit a new high this year at $31,800. The old mainstream currencies BCH and XRP also rushed, and then some altcoins rebounded from oversold.
It is true that there were signs of recovery in the first half of the month, and there was a glimmer of hope, but the good times did not last long. After all, the biggest problem in the market, liquidity, still cannot be fundamentally solved, resulting in a lack of sustainability in the market. Every time BTC hits a new high, there will be profit-taking, causing the market to fall instead of rise and stagnate. In this situation, we can only hope that the United States stops raising interest rates, and that Bitcoin spot ETF is passed and other positive news will stimulate investors to return to the market. However, these news are still in the waiting stage, and it is still unknown when they can be realized.
In July, BTC showed a pattern of opening high and closing low, which is obviously not a good sign. Whether BTC can return to above 30,000 in the remaining five trading days of July will be inspiring for the market outlook in August. Whether BTC can return to above 30,000 in the last five trading days, tonight's Federal Reserve meeting will be one of the key factors.
How should we judge this Fed meeting? What are the possible scenarios? First of all, it is a sure thing that the Fed will raise interest rates by another 25 basis points at this meeting. The market has reached a consensus, so there is no need to be surprised if the Fed announces a rate hike tonight. At the same time, it will not have a significant impact on the market. The key lies in the Fed's hints about the next meeting and the second half of the year. Will the Fed raise interest rates again?
The first possibility: It implies that there will be more rate hikes, but there will be a pause in September and the final rate hike will be in November. === Because there is a buffer period, the market was not greatly affected that night.
The second possibility: hinting at two more rate hikes, that is, in September and November. === This is undoubtedly bearish and will have a big impact on the market, but the possibility is relatively low, because the last meeting hinted that there will only be two rate hikes in the second half of the year, and inflation continues to fall, so there is no need to raise interest rates twice.
The third possibility: it implies that there will be an interest rate hike in September, but it will be the last rate hike === it is actually made clear that September will be the last rate hike, so naturally it will not have much impact on the market. The probability of this possibility occurring tonight is relatively high.
The fourth possibility: July may be the last rate hike, and whether there will be a rate hike in September depends on the non-farm data and inflation data in August and September. === This is a more flexible way, which is equivalent to saying nothing. It is also a method that the Fed is good at, making it difficult for the market to guess the Fed's intentions. It can attack or defend, and not giving a very clear answer gives itself a way out. The probability of this possibility tonight is not low.
The fifth possibility: directly announcing the last rate hike and ending the rate hike cycle, which is undoubtedly good for the market, but it is unlikely that the Fed will give a conclusion that is in line with market expectations so readily. If it happens, it can only be said to be an unexpected surprise.
According to the above five possibilities, except for the second one, the other four possibilities will not pose a big negative impact on the market. Therefore, it is unlikely that the market will fall one-sidedly tonight, and there is no risk of collapse for the time being. Of course, this is just a personal opinion. This kind of top-level national policy is not easy for ordinary people to predict. We can only give a few options for your reference and preparation in advance.
Let's assume the market trend that may develop in the next few months:
The first path continues the rhythm of the first half of the year. Each time a new high is broken, there is a pullback, but the pullback range is no less than this year's trend line. Now the bottom line of the trend line is around $27,500. As time goes by, it is expected that when the price comes down, the trend line will have moved up to around $28,000. In other words, it may first pull back and then rise in the third quarter, reaching around $28,000 in early August, adjusting in place and ending, and then going up again to form a new upward trend. $28,000 is the new starting point, and the new round of increase may be around 20%, which is around $34,000.
The second scenario is that the third quarter will be the real adjustment period of the year, with $31,800 becoming the short-term top and adjusting to between $26,000 and $24,000. I still hold the view that as long as there are no super black swan events and macroeconomic crisis-level events (unpredictable) in the second half of the year, I do not believe that BTC will fall below the "2" digit, and $26,000-$24,000 is the extreme range of adjustment.
There will definitely be a wave of adjustments at some point in the second half of the year, it is a question of whether it will come early or late. If the market chooses to adjust in advance, I believe there will be a "golden pit" at the end of October, which will be an opportunity to ambush next year's market in advance!
The third scenario is that the price will continue to trade in the $31,000-$29,000 range for the next month until the last wave of the year in late August or September, driving the market sentiment to a climax. Within half a month, BTC will reach $35,000 or even higher, and then start to adjust in late September or October until the end of the year in December, and then start a new upward cycle.
