#现货以太坊ETF获美SEC批准 #BTC走势分析 #ETH
At the beginning of the month, I talked about some ideas for May transactions in the community. On Twitter, I mainly focused on reviewing the market and several issues that group members are concerned about. This model will probably be the main one in the future.
Although the profit in May was not large and there was no large-scale leverage operation, it was still relatively stable as the macro narrative shift cycle was intensive and liquidity had not improved significantly.
When it comes to trading, you don’t need to have so many ideas every day. You should always wait for opportunities and reduce mistakes.
The focus here is still on questions from members of the Fubao group, which mainly include some sharp questions and some questions that the group members reacted strongly to because they did not understand. I don’t think there is any need to avoid anything, as traders still have to face the reality.
1. Didn’t you see 57,000? What do you think about it now that it has increased?
2.How is Dow Theory used?
3. Why did we get rid of the trap yesterday (May 20th post) and even call for a second buy? Isn’t this a repetition? If it is the second buy point, how to judge it?
The above are the most acute questions. Acuteness means that everyone does not understand the most and has the most disagreements. Solving these problems does not mean that the trading results will be correct, but the trading ideas will be clearer. The problem is not gone if you hide it. Then I can just use Twitter PUA and hide and seek. I still have to face it correctly and solve it. This is also the meaning of my establishment of the trader community and the blessing group. People should be purer. 1. First of all, let's respond to the 57,000 question. The reason why many group members question this aspect is that they only see the results.
The problem is not gone if I hide, so I can just play PUA on Twitter and hide and seek, but I still have to face it correctly and solve it. This is also the meaning of my establishment of the trader community and the blessing group, people still have to be pure.
1. First, let’s respond to question 57,000.
The reason why many group members question this aspect is that they only see the results and ignore the process. There is no need to explain too much.
The point I just want to emphasize is that the Marxist worldview and methodology are inseparable, and the same is true for traders.
At that time, I discussed macro liquidity, inflation fluctuations, trading volume, and BTC stock in my space and came to the conclusion that only 3,200 big cakes of consensus would be needed to smash BTC to below 57,000.
This is not a black swan or a sudden event; it is an expected and imminent event with a high probability.
In order to ensure the stability of the trading system and prevent the collapse of large-scale copycats under the mainstream (copycats were in a very weak state at the time), we need to formulate a trading strategy.
Here you need to choose a strategy. Some people say that it is so risky that you should open a short position or run away. This is actually very subjective and has not been systematically thought out. Basically, if the price goes up, it will go up, and if it goes down, it will go down.
In sapce I said that all trading strategy choices will be based on your position.
Known: At 414, I put my liquid funds into positions to buy spot (never fully invested), and at 60,000, I took positions, and discussed in the community the reasons why Sun Ge bought ETH and why 3,000 ETH is very cost-effective.
Under these conditions, the strategy I chose is to wear a condom.
2. Why should we use Dow Theory to wear condoms?
There are many ways to hedge, including hedging with term funding rates and hedging with pledged inflation. I remember I mentioned various hedging postures in my response to @luckybb88. Today I will talk about new postures.
I chose to use the Dow Theory to prevent the risk of falling, and use low-multiple $ETH short orders to get the bullet to buy at the bottom. At that time, the short order point mentioned by space was the Dow point of 3144.
The selection and direction of Dow points are based on the technical level to determine the trend level, and the trend short orders are made.
During this period, too much macro attention was paid to PPI. I revised my judgment once and believed that CPI should be positive, which half-removed the cover. See the following tweet.
During this period, Fank and I discussed macro liquidity. @qinbafrank believes that the Ministry of Finance will release the liquidity of the US dollar through the regulation of the TGA account. Of course, according to the guidance of @Phyrex_Ni, TGA must have a reason for borrowing. TGA cannot inject liquidity, but does not absorb liquidity. In addition, the balance of the TGA account decreased last Friday, which provided guidance for the later trading funds betting on the macro market, which is also one of the foundations of this surge.
3. Why did they remove the trap yesterday and even call for a second buy? Isn’t this a repetition? If it is the second buy point, how to judge it?
This is also why I found it difficult to answer the group friend who asked me to call a buy point in my tweet.
It is difficult to confirm the second buying point because we don’t know the problem of the retracement depth. There is also a certain theoretical system about the retracement depth, but it is too complicated to work out.
The Dow Destruction in Dow Theory forms a recursive nesting from the large level to the small level.
Based on this, I found the buying point at this level, which was the morning of May 20, which was the secondary level MACD divergence and underwater golden x.
However, I did not place a second buy order because of the liquidity issue on the weekend and I did not know whether the sentiment towards CPI on Monday would last. Otherwise, the pullback in U.S. stocks and the sentiment might not be a good buying point.
Therefore, when everyone was passing 520 last night, I was still talking about the entanglement theory with my friends. The U.S. stock market opened, and the sentiment was not affected, and ETH went back and forth to form a golden x in 4H.
Confirm the second purchase and notify group members to take off the condoms and welcome the market.
Since then, from the call for group members to add bullets on April 14th to yesterday's second purchase, can it be considered a large arbitrage in a certain range? ?
I call it the art of condom wearing.
