Let's talk about the market of the cryptocurrency market today. We will mainly talk about two questions: Why is it the end of October? Since you think it will fall, why do you have a full position in spot? First of all, let's talk about why the time node is the end of October: 1. Of course, it is what many people say, "carving a boat to find a sword". According to the historical cycle, there is a high probability that there will be a low point at the end of this year. In this sense, the end of October is just a broad expression of the end of the year. 2. Fundamentally, the excess savings issued by the United States due to the new crown in September may be used up. Without funds to support consumption, recession expectations may heat up and may ferment to the maximum at the end of October. Then it may lead to expectations of the end of tightening, and thus start to rise. 3. Technically, as shown in the figure. After the standard 3-stage rise of Bitcoin weekly line (I don't know the wave theory, so I express it this way), both the volume and the indicators are seriously deviated. There is a high probability that an adjustment will be made to the rise since 16,000. According to fib, it is likely to be adjusted to between 22,000 and 26,000. According to the graph, it has risen for more than 7 months before, and this large-scale decline of about 3 months is in line with the aesthetic effect of fib. Now let's talk about why we still need to take spot: 1. First of all, no one can be absolutely sure that it will fall. Even if it is relatively certain to fall, it is not certain how much it will fall. Under the premise of a big rise next year, the risk of not being full of spot is also quite large. 2. I am essentially a contract trader. For me, a full position in spot is the same as no transaction. 3. Even if it falls, the limit of Ethereum is only around 1340, and it is unlikely to reach that level. If there is a big drop, it is estimated to be around 1500. In the context of the possibility of reaching 15000+ in the next two years, such a small retracement risk must be borne in a sense. As the saying goes, you can't see the rainbow without the storm. #BTC #ETH #dogecoin
