1. Universal investment research?
I don’t know why, but the word “investment research” has been appearing in my ears and in front of my eyes recently.
When I was browsing my Moments, I saw many people talking about investment research.
When I chat with people offline, I often mention investment research.
Especially for those who work in communities, it seems that all communities without investment research are garbage communities.
It seems that investment research has become a magic weapon and a universal antidote.
It also seems that as long as you do investment research, wealth will come rolling in.
Just this morning, I saw Ju Zuo in a new group talking about a project and launching an airdrop - it happened to be a project that came out during my retirement, so I asked about it out of curiosity.
The answer I received was - do some investment research.
Among people in the cryptocurrency circle, the word "investment research" seems to be almost equivalent to Baidu.
In the past, if you didn’t understand, you could just go to Baidu.
Now, if you don’t understand, just go and do some investment research.
2. The era of making money through investment research is over
In Ju Zuo's impression, the term investment research emerged in 21 years, which was the DeFi summer.
Many people have achieved returns of thousands or even tens of thousands of times because of their good investment research, which has become a new way to make money.
As a result, more and more people have joined the investment research army, made a fortune in this wave of wealth creation, and even made it directly ashore.
But what Ju Zuo did not expect was that three years later, the term investment research is still popular, and there are still so many people who regard investment research as a dragon-slaying sword.
Here, Juzuo would like to ask a question: What is the essence of investment research?
You can put yourself in this situation and think about it for five seconds, then come up with an instinctive answer.
In Juzuo’s view, the essence of investment research is information asymmetry.
Looking back at the investment research in the past 21 years, what was the historical background at that time?
At that time, the Cyberspace Administration of China and other relevant departments issued regulations that domestic platforms were not allowed to divert traffic to the blockchain and cryptocurrency fields. As a result, many large accounts and media platforms collapsed at this stage.
Subsequently, following the exchanges going overseas, a new wave of projects going overseas was launched.
During this period, an information gap was formed between China and abroad.
Due to policy restrictions, information about many new projects is only promoted on platforms such as Twitter, TG, and Discord.
Those who use these platforms early on will be able to obtain important information earlier than domestic users.
Everyone will think that this is a good opportunity. They can get the information first and synchronize it to the country after the position is built. The domestic leeks will pass the flower around while they sell the goods. No matter what they think at the time, they will do so in the end.
Especially in a bull market, this behavior can continue for a long time and can be mass-produced on an assembly line.
So the smarter people start to quickly package their own projects after completing the initial accumulation, and then more smart people come in to do the same thing.
This also led to the dilution of the project's return rate, and even to the final rug.
Looking at the present day, Ju Zuo believes that although this information gap still exists, it is not as obvious as it was three years ago.
3. Investment research ultimately depends on capital
I have said so much, not to advocate that investment research is useless, because investment research is still very useful for a person's growth, especially in terms of physical perception of the industry.
What Juzuo wants to express is that investment research is useful, but not so useful anymore
Firstly, the era when everyone flocked to Twitter has passed, and it is impossible for project owners to harvest traffic from Twitter anymore, and it is not as easy to become a KOL as it was in the past.
Secondly, project parties are getting more and more sophisticated about the game. To put it bluntly, the reason why we were able to obtain excess returns from the projects before was because some project parties did not understand the game either and followed suit during the operation process, which gave the investment research party longer arbitrage opportunities.
Thirdly, although we are in the same bull market, the chaotic altcoin season has gone, and efforts are continuing to be made in mainstream traditional currencies. The liquidity pool is indeed getting deeper, but it has not spilled over to the altcoins much.
Based on the above background, and the fact that the project party has gone through such a long period of experience, they have already understood the game better than the investment and research parties.
Next, I will use the perspective of a project party to stop you investment and research people.
Suppose I am a very conscientious project owner who is really willing to launch an airdrop.
The operation is also very simple. In the token economic model, I can directly calculate the airdrop ratio. It is easy to get the total token amount * airdrop ratio = initial circulation chips data.
Based on the project valuation, you can know the value of the project's circulating chips.
Then just formulate the airdrop strategy in reverse.
I will let you make money, but the percentage is very low.
I will let you crash the market, but it will be difficult.
To put it simply, you interact with an account, you brush the data, and then I give you about 200u for an account. You can't say that I am black-hearted.
I haven't even gotten into anti-witch tactics and the point system yet.
If you deduct the gas and account costs, let's just call it 50u. I think the 4x profit is worth it.
How many accounts you can open depends on your own ability.
I am still a conscientious project owner. There are no witches, no reverse take, and the coins will be issued in a short period of time, which will not waste your youth and financial costs.
Even if you are so conscientious, in the end you will find that what determines the upper limit of your income is investment research or the size of your funds?
If I were to tell you two more pieces of information about Sun Ge, you would know the truth about this industry.
The second is that Sun Ge bought Ethereum crazily some time ago. At that time, Ethereum fell below Sun Ge's opening price, and a group of people came out to laugh at Sun Ge. As a result, just half a month later, Ethereum skyrocketed.
You can say Sun cuts bad things, but you can't say Sun cuts vegetables.
Therefore, Ju Zuo’s point of view is very clear: your investment research level is determined by the level of your wealth.
This sentence is worth pondering over ten times by all those who do investment research.
If you have money, capital and investment research capabilities, you can expand your wealth level.
You don’t have money but you have time and investment research ability. Tell me when you will get rich.
4. Investment research no longer exists
The reason why Ju Zuo said this is because there are too many people doing investment research now, and they are too superstitious about the effectiveness of investment research.
Ju Zuo’s advice to individuals is that you can build up your understanding of the industry through investment research, but there is no need to spend so much time on investment research.
We assume that everyone's initial investment and research directions are randomly distributed, but after a long time you will find that the projects that are worth paying attention to are only available to the leaders in each sub-segment.
After the industry consensus screening, everyone will do investment research again for the remaining projects. What is the point of this reinventing the wheel?
If everyone finally focuses on the top of these tracks, then the project owners will naturally become arrogant and use all kinds of restrictive measures such as anti-witch measures, point system, limited time periods, etc.
Then what? Then you find that in the end it is still a matter of who is richer and who is more diligent.
Moreover, this situation is not very realistic, because those who engage in investment research will basically not invest heavily in only one project. They will choose to cast a wide net and not put all their eggs in one basket. What they are betting on is a comprehensive success.
But in this case, how high can your rate of return be given limited capital and dispersed chips?
And the final rate of return is no longer as glorious as it once was.
So, among investment and research, is investment more important or research more important?
Or is it that investment research is not important at all?
