Let me talk about three things that everyone is concerned about recently:

1. Will the Ethereum ETF be approved in the near future? What are the effects of passing or not passing?

2. Can Bitcoin return to the 70,000 mark and start a violent bull market?

3. When will the cottage season come, and how should we layout and build positions?

Ethereum ETF is the hottest topic in the past two days. Tomorrow, May 23, the SEC will give a reply to VanEck's Ethereum spot ETF. How will this result affect the market? A: Pass. If it passes, it will undoubtedly be a good thing in the long run. This can be seen from the capital inflow after the Bitcoin ETF is passed. However, it is precisely because of the performance of the Bitcoin ETF that ETH has fully included the positive expectations (75% probability of passing) into the price. Therefore, it is likely to cause short-term selling pressure after passing (first rise and then fall after passing), and the positive landing will be negative. B: Not passed. If it is not approved, the SEC will review the Ethereum spot ETF applications of ARK, 21SHARES, Hashdex, Grayscale and other companies in the next few days. If ETH is classified as a security, then the price of ETH will go back to where it came from, because the next few companies will not pass it either. But if it is for other reasons, the expectations for the future still exist, and the price of the currency is likely to continue to maintain high speculation expectations.

In summary, ETH's short-term upward space is not large after a sharp increase of 20% in a single day. It is not realistic to expect a continuous sharp increase. The selling orders after the sharp increase in a single day hit a new high in recent months. Therefore, it is necessary to confirm repeatedly above 3500 for a period of time before there is a chance to move to a higher position. Don't be emotional FOMO and chase high.

Bitcoin's return to the 70,000 mark is the result of ETH's 20% sharp increase in a single day. In addition, the Bitcoin ETF has turned to a large inflow again this week, making the market strong again. From the overall trend, the current volume is not enough to directly start a violent bull market and enter a new main rising wave. In the short term, madmen still believe that it is mainly oscillating, and the box will be between 60,000 and 73,000. ETFs are gradually changing hands with traditional currency holders. This process will take some time. The violent bull market may not come until after the third quarter. In the long run, the current box is still a bull market relay.

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When will the altcoin season come? This may be the most concerned topic for many small and medium retail investors. According to the previous bull market, the altcoin season will come in the late stage of the main rising wave of Bitcoin. If we judge that the current Bitcoin does not have the momentum to directly start the main rising wave, then the altcoin season is obviously still not ripe. Therefore, for building a position in altcoins, the madman's suggestion is to gradually participate at a low level. After all, the overall price of altcoins is not too high now, and it is completely okay to build some bottom positions. I will sort out the specific sectors and tokens in the next few days. Don't be too anxious and nervous. At the right time, the madman will give you the answer. Just like I repeatedly mentioned PEPE and various MEME leaders in my tweets in early May, they were the most eye-catching in the whole of May.