Market analysis on July 24: If you are not short now, when should you make a move?

The trend of BTC price this week is affected by many factors, the most important of which is the interest rate decision of the Federal Reserve. The market is anxiously waiting whether the interest rate decision and the expiration of a large number of options will disrupt the current consolidation and lead the market to a clear direction. In terms of news, there are forecasts that the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike is 92%, which may affect the decline of BTC price. In addition, BTC options will expire on July 28, with the maximum pain point of 29,000. There are currently a large number of call options open, betting on an increase to 30,000 and 31,000, with a notional value of about $300 million. The ratio of put options to call options is 0.55, with a total notional value of about $2 billion. If the BTC price still cannot remain above 30,000 after the option expires, it may fall below 29,500 again.

From the market point of view, BTC has repeatedly tested the 29,500 support level but failed to break through, showing that this is a strong support level, attracting a large number of buy orders to buy at the bottom. Last week's high-altitude thinking brought good returns to some friends. This week, my personal thinking is still bearish, unless the price breaks through $31,200, I will still maintain a bearish attitude. If it falls below $29,500, it may usher in an accelerated decline.

It should be noted that the STMX incident may have a certain impact on the market, and compensation is expected, but I personally think it is nonsense. It is recommended to treat such events with caution and consider multiple factors to make trading decisions.

In general, the market liquidity is poor and the trading volume continues to be sluggish, making the market trend difficult to predict. In this uncertain context, it is recommended to act cautiously, strictly implement trading strategies, and keep an eye on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and the performance reports of other technology giants, which may bring new trends to the market.