Glassnode’s latest article, in-depth on-chain data analysis. 《A Macro Reset》20240522

Summary of AI key content and future market trends

1. Supply-side dynamics: - Selling pressure easing: Selling pressure on long-term holders (LTH) has dropped significantly since the all-time high in March. The LTH binary spending indicator shows a significant decrease in LTH distribution activity, indicating weakening resistance for the bulls. - Increase in short-term holders (STH): Bitcoin supply among short-term holders has increased significantly, reflecting new investors buying Bitcoin during the correction. The local divergence between LTH and STH supply further strengthens the view that selling pressure from mature investors has cooled. -Intensified holding preference: Activity indicators indicate that the Bitcoin network is currently experiencing more coin-day generation than destruction, showing an increased market preference for long-term holding of coins rather than active selling for profit.

2. Demand-side trends: - Moderate capital inflows: Although slower than the peak, capital inflows into the Bitcoin network remain in a positive, profit-led range. Although the demand is relatively mild compared to the ATH period, it is enough to support the current price trend when the selling pressure is reduced.

3. Volatility compression: - Sell-side risk ratio decreases: The sell-side risk ratio (which measures the ratio of the total value locked in coins spent on the chain relative to the realized market capitalization) has significantly reduced, suggesting that the market has reached a certain degree of equilibrium during the correction. A low ratio usually indicates a low-volatility environment and the potential for profits and losses to be exhausted within the current price range. - Decreased price volatility: The percentage range between the highest and lowest prices over the past 60 days has continued to narrow, reaching levels commonly seen after long periods of consolidation and before major market moves.

4. Top heaviness assessment: - Unspent transaction output actual price distribution (URPD) analysis: URPD data shows that approximately 15.9% of the Bitcoin supply is concentrated not far below the current market price, forming a strong support cluster. Conversely, only 1.1% of the circulating supply is above the current market price, reducing the risk of top heaviness.

Conclusion and future market impact:

Following LTH’s high-intensity distribution during the $73K ATH period, selling pressure eased significantly, creating conditions conducive to higher prices even with moderate demand.The compression of volatility over longer time frames and the formation of a solid support cluster below current market prices indicate that the Bitcoin market is well-positioned for potential price growth. While the market may still be volatile, factors such as reduced selling pressure, continued moderate capital inflows, and reduced volatility point to a possible resumption of upward momentum in the Bitcoin market. However, investors should remain cautious, closely monitor market dynamics, and make decisions based on in-depth analysis of multiple factors.

#Crypto#链上数据 #BTC