This week we have two key deadlines for ETH ETF applications from VanEck and ARK. In fact, one only needs to keep an eye on the outcome of VanEck’s application on May 23rd, as we can assume that decisions will be made on all other ETH ETF applications on the same day, just as we had a decision on the BTC ETF in January. If VanEck’s application is rejected, all other applications may also be rejected, if it is delayed, all other applications will also be delayed, and so on.

The market generally believes that the ETH ETF will not be approved in May. Since this consensus has been formed in the past few weeks, the rejection has also been priced in, which is why I don’t think such a decision will lead to a big market correction. Maybe a short-term overreaction, but not a long-term one. On the other hand, since the market expected the rejection weeks ago, the approval may not be a sell-off news event like the BTC ETF, but instead will lead to a big rally and a reversal in ETH/Bitcoin. This is also bullish for alts.

As I said before, even if the ETH ETF is rejected in May, I don’t think they will be rejected by the SEC forever. BlackRock has only received 1 ETF application rejection, and the recent news of JPMorgan or Wells Fargo holding BTC ETFs confirms the huge institutional demand for cryptocurrency-related ETFs. Once the ETF is approved, there is a large amount of institutional funds ready to flow into ETH.