Just yesterday morning, the market did not believe at all that ETH-ETF could be accepted before May 31st.
For example, on the Polymarket platform the coefficient was 1 to 10.
đąWhat has changed?
Exchanges wishing to trade ETH-ETF shares have been asked by the SEC to urgently update Forms 19b-4, which addresses changes to trading rules. This could indicate the applications may be approved by Thursday.
But there's an important caveat: In addition, S-1 filings, which are registration statements, also need to be approved to begin trading. According to ETF Store President Nate Geraci, it's technically possible for the SEC to approve the 19b-4 and then slow down the S-1 approval process. Source.
In addition, top experts from the analytical company Bloomberg unexpectedly raised the probability of approval of ETH-ETF from 25% to 75%.
The combination of these factors led to the growth of the market. ETH grew by 20%. BTC by more than 8%. Many altcoins show more growth. The crypto community perceived this news as a fait accompli, the adoption of the ETH-ETF, which in my opinion is not entirely correct.
Let us recall that this kind of âinjectionâ also took place before the approval of BTC-ETF.
In the near future we will find out whether this is really inside information or another media leak and how the market will evaluate this event.
đąWhat's on the market?
The adoption of the ETF does not mean a crazy demand for it. Coinbase has been operating in the US for a long time and everyone could buy ETH there. In our opinion, the euphoria after the adoption will continue for some time, and then there will be a natural decline in activity.
Most alts are now -40-50% lower than 2 months ago. Everyone has been All-in in alts for a long time and waiting for the alt season.
And this is not bad, but very good - I see altcoins capitulating to BTC/time. People are selling undervalued altcoins for expensive BTC, some are just tired of waiting.
For me, this is a signal that everything is going according to plan, and altcoins will definitely turn around in relation to BTC at the right moment.
