My thoughts and predictions on the spot Ethereum ETF

Reference: Price reactions in different periods in previous spot Bitcoin ETF cases.

Looking back, you can see that $BTC’s reaction to the two major events in 2024 (spot ETF and halving) was slightly synchronized.

- For ETF: Rumors flare up ⇢ until official approval 👉 $BTC increases by 90%, then decreases by -20%.

- Halving: ETF continues to fall, $BTC reached 73k (up nearly 90% 1 month before halving) has now dropped to 56k (also down nearly -20%) before rebounding to over 70k today.

Personal opinion: This is still the eternal story of "buy the rumor, sell the truth". In the above two cases we see that the Bitcoin price reaction, although not 100% the same, has obvious similarities ⇢ both increased the activation date before the official release and then adjusted it.

Which group of altcoins do you think has grown the most over the past 2 Bitcoin events?

⇢ Mainly popular tokens: memecoin, AI, top coins L1 and Bitcoin ecosystem (L2, BRC-20) As for the L2, LSD, DeFi... groups on the Ethereum system, they are almost motionless, and even ETH has been outperformed by BTC.

But if you look closely, you will find that the situation is different now, and the attention after the halving is more focused on Ethereum.

The most talked about thing in the market these days is the spot Ethereum ETF. Today, all major media outlets began to push the news, and everyone saw it, leading to strong buying momentum in the market and expectations that the ETF will be listed soon.

Will be approved this month. ⇢ Also a familiar market-driven course offered by gaming companies. 🧐

But will VanEck’s ETF’s May 23 deadline ever pass?

⇢ To me, most likely not, and the fund will need time to add additional documentation as required by the SEC before it is officially approved

- Similar to the previous delays of the Bitcoin ETF. The second half of 2023. (No less than 5 delays) This does not mean that the Ethereum ETF will have similar and long delays like Bitcoin, my goal is at least likely to be in late June or early July (matching the time when the system releases a lot of major news).

Otherwise, if we wait until the fourth quarter when the US presidential election is coming to an end and then approve it, altcoins will get a better stimulus from then on.

Generally speaking, making a story game requires more time to accumulate, but it was too hasty and a large number of newcomers did not have time to come in.

(1) What if the above prediction comes true? ⇢ Since the news is not as expected, the ETF cannot be passed. After that, ETH begins to accumulate, bringing hope for the next ETF to be approved. Related altcoins will also follow the ETH wave

(2) What if the ETF is approved by the SEC this month? ⇢ $ETH will still sell off as investors take profits when the news is officially released, but will grow again in the medium term or depending on market developments and sales in the next few months. TradFi funds will also start to flow into ETH, just like they did into BTC.

✧Many good stories surrounding ETH are told and spread like this:

- Bitcoin has reset and started a new round, but will increase slowly instead of building bars quickly like before.

- Fund flows begin to flow through ETH, and RR is expected to be higher than BTC in the coming period.

- L2 tokens compete to inject capital to promote the ecosystem and create games that attract users, the L2 war becomes more attractive ⇢ requiring more network usage ⇢ increasing the need to use and hold ETH.

- The investor community on TradFi also invests in both ETH and BTC. ...

✧In addition, the following news will also be a positive point for the prosperity of the entire market:

- Candidates running for the US presidential election turn to cryptocurrencies to win the hearts of big fintech crypto giants, big investment funds… in order to still be able to provide momentum for the campaign.

——The M2 money supply showed signs of increasing.

- The Fed may start cutting interest rates in the third or fourth quarter. ...

There are many more small ideas, but I will only give the main ideas here. The prediction of ETH situation only stops here, and we will have to observe more and discuss it later.

The opinions I share are based on personal experience so may be right or wrong, now, get ready for the roller coaster ride that is about to happen! 🤠