On May 20, gold prices hit $2,449, soaring to a record high as optimism grew that the Federal Reserve would begin easing monetary policy this year. Well-known Wall Street short sellers "admitted their mistakes" and turned bullish, with Morgan Stanley's Michael Wilson raising the target price for the S&P 500 from 4,500 to 5,400.
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Based on previous experience, the fate of the ETH spot ETF may be decided this week by the vote of Gary Gensler, director of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). In January of this year, the approval of the BTC spot ETF was the responsibility of a panel of five commissioners, two in favor and two against. Gensler finally voted in favor, and industry insiders believed that his vote ultimately ensured the approval of the spot BTC ETF. Coinbase said, "The macroeconomy remains the key driver of cryptocurrency performance, although we believe that the upcoming major catalyst may be regulatory-driven. Upcoming regulatory events include the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC)'s decision on the spot ETH ETF, the White House's possible action on the SEC's SAB121 repeal bill, and the U.S. House of Representatives' vote on the 21st Century Financial Innovation and Technology Act (FIT), potential stablecoin legislation, which may also accelerate this adoption cycle." In the first quarter of 2024, crypto startups received $2.4 billion in 518 financings, an increase of 40.3% compared to the previous quarter, and trading volume increased by 44.7%. According to data from The Block, the number of new BTC addresses has dropped to the lowest level since 2018, with an average of only 275,000 addresses per day in the past week, compared to 625,000 six months ago. The bankrupt institution Genesis Global has obtained court approval to return approximately $3 billion in cash and cryptocurrency to creditors. On May 17, US Court Sean Lane approved Genesis' Chapter 11 repayment plan. Analyst tradetheflow_ said: The top CEXs take advantage of the fact that retail investors cannot obtain high-quality early investment opportunities, and their listings are only to provide exit liquidity for insiders. In the past six months, the average FDV of the top CEX newly listed projects reached $4.2 billion, and more than 80% continued to fall after listing.
10x Research said that price action has improved significantly since last week, with prices rebounding to the resistance zone at the end of April, surpassing the highs of early May, and breaking through $67,500 may set a new all-time high, and the "bull-bear dividing line" of $68,300 "Back in focus, a break above this point could technically spark a strong rally. Ki Young, CEO of CryptoQuant, said that BTC is in the middle of a bull cycle and that BTC’s actual market cap is “growing faster than its realized market cap” (valuing it at the last moving price of each UTXO), a trend that typically It will last two years, meaning the ongoing bull market will end in the next 11 months or so. Anthony Scaramucci, founder of Sky Bridge Capital, believes that the approval of U.S. regulatory agencies has solved a key obstacle faced by large institutional investors. Institutions have begun to fully adopt BTC and will accelerate in the next few quarters. Major financial institutions and pension funds are interested in BTC. The acceptance level is getting higher and higher. On May 20, the price of gold hit $2,449, surging to a record high as optimism grew that the Federal Reserve would begin to ease monetary policy this year. The market value of silver has once again surpassed that of BTC, becoming the eighth largest asset in the world by market value. Since March 14, silver has increased by 33.4%, with a current market value of US$1.828 trillion. BTC has a market value of US$1.322 trillion. BTC needs to rise by 40% to reach US$93,000. Only then can it exceed the current market value of silver. Gold has gained 22.4% since February 13 and currently has a market value of $16.392 trillion. The U.S. Spot BTC ETF purchased 14,389 BTC last week, worth $1 billion.
Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas said: BTCETF received $1.3 billion in inflows in two weeks, offsetting all outflows in April. In the first quarter, the number of fund companies holding BTC ETFs in the 13F documents submitted to the US Securities and Exchange Commission exceeded 900, and the number of companies holding gold ETF exposure was 95. The number of fund companies that disclosed BTC ETF exposure in the first quarter was about 10 times that of gold ETFs. James Butterfll, head of research at CoinShares, said that 25% of the disclosed data already represents a holding size of $15 billion, and the average BTC allocation ratio in the portfolio is 0.6%. Bank of America strategists Athanasios Vamvakidis and Claudio Piron said: The market has shifted from the expectation of a one-time interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December to two interest rate cuts starting in September. Due to unsatisfactory US job market and inflation data, the US dollar index has fallen 1.62% so far in May. Once the Federal Reserve starts to cut interest rates, the US dollar will weaken across the board. After the US inflation slowed more than expected in April, the US dollar fell and US bonds rose, providing support for gold. Mark, an analyst at the US "Fund Strategy" global consulting company. Newton said: "The bullish view is correct. The S&P 500 will rise further and stand above 5,400 points. Any weakness is temporary. The Federal Reserve said in early May that it plans to adjust the pace of reducing its $7.3 trillion balance sheet (quantitative tightening) starting on June 1, reducing the monthly outflow limit of maturing U.S. Treasury bonds from its balance sheet from $60 billion to a maximum of $25 billion. The portion of the maturing proceeds of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) that exceeds the monthly limit of $35 billion will also be reinvested in U.S. Treasury bonds.
Tom Becker, an asset allocation expert at BlackRock, said that this is not a trivial matter and will have a negative impact on the US dollar. The fund has increased its short position on the US dollar this year, and has been long US stocks and shorting long-term US government bonds. The well-known big short on Wall Street "admitted his mistake" and turned long. Michael Wilson of Morgan Stanley raised the target price of the S&P 500 index from 4,500 to 5,400 points. His report said: In the coming months, the path of inflation decline, economic growth and policy will be clearer, and the bright macroeconomic environment will support risk assets in the second half of this year. And raised the target of the MSCI European Local Index from 2,230 points to 2,500 points. The 90-day correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq 100 Index reached 0.46%, the highest level since late August 2023. In the second half of the year, the US stock market will enter a bull market, which will support the listed Bitcoin spot ETF, and then drive the currency market into a bull market. The US BTC spot ETF had a trading volume of US$5.65 billion last week, the highest level since March 24, and nearly 1,000 US listed companies purchased BTC spot ETFs. After experiencing a sharp drop in inflation last year, inflation briefly rebounded in the first quarter of this year, and returned to a downward trend in the second quarter. The second quarter is already halfway through, and inflation will fall again in the third quarter. There is a high probability of a rate cut. The weakening in the bull market is temporary, and what we are waiting for now is to enter the next bull market. #以太坊ETF批准预期 #BTC走势分析 #机构积极投资比特币ETF
