While the crypto market still has a volume of $2.5 trillion, some indicators suggest that Bitcoin may be at the beginning of a bull market. TLDR analyst ELI5 recently announced five on-chain signals that Bitcoin is gearing up for a price increase. However, Bitcoin's total market share is still above 56%, and this rate has remained since October 2023. This shows that during the previous bear market cycle, the majority of investors got rid of their altcoins and moved towards Bitcoin before the bull market.
Important On-Chain Indicators: HODL Waves, MVRV Z-Score and Puell Multiple.
An important metric like the Bitcoin MVRV Z-score shows the ratio of the cryptocurrency's current market cap to its average market cap. This score typically rises as high as 6 at cycle peaks, but is currently less than half that value, indicating growth potential. According to LookIntoBitcoin charts, this score has not exceeded 6 since March 2021.
Another important metric is Puell Multiple; This has historically correlated well with cycle tops but has not yet crossed the important 3 level. This multiple is obtained by dividing the daily mining value by its annual average, and while it had fallen below 1 after the halving on April 20, it had only reached 2.4 in the midst of the price increase in March 2024, according to Coinglass data.
Charts showing the number of Bitcoins held by various investor groups, such as HODL Waves, also paint a positive picture. Realized Value HODL Waves reduce the number of peaks among actual buyers, meaning the selling pressure may be complete. ELI5 replied: "Less experienced BTC beginners are less involved and are more likely to panic sell. We may still have a chance to move up."
Miner Income and Opposite Signals
More specifically, the possible tops of the market are determined by miner revenue per hash, which indicates the profitability of Bitcoin mining. Typically this metric rises to $0.3 per second per TH/s in relation to past cycle peaks.
On the other hand, there are also some KPIs (Key Performance Indicators) that can indicate market bubbles. A parameter such as the RHODL ratio compares the average cost of newly purchased coins with the cost 1-2 years ago; If new buyers are paying much more, it could be a sign that the market is overbought and ready to fall. Similarly, CVDD measures cumulative value-time destruction and appears to have reached its maximum level. This suggests that a massive migration of older coins could lead to changes in the market top.
Current Market Situation
According to the latest information, Bitcoin is at $67,000, down 9% from mid-March peaks. While on-chain metrics indicate that Bitcoin may have reached its peak, most market indicators such as MVRV Z-score, Puell Multiple, and HODL Waves are extremely optimistic and point to the beginning of a possible Bitcoin bull cycle.
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