As a crypto trader, I often hear arguments about the uselessness of technical analysis. I have several opinions on this:
Negative Views
1. Market unpredictability: Some people believe that the market is too complex and random, and technical analysis (TA) cannot truly predict future price trends. Price fluctuations in the market are affected by many factors, including news events, economic data, market sentiment, etc., which are often difficult to capture through technical analysis.
2. Self-fulfilling prophecy: Critics argue that the effectiveness of technical analysis comes in part from the fact that a large number of traders believe in and use the same technical indicators and chart patterns. This self-fulfilling phenomenon may have a short-term effect on the market, but it may not be reliable in the long run.
3. Lack of fundamental support: Some people believe that technical analysis ignores the impact of fundamentals, such as the actual value of the project, technological development, team strength, etc. Simply relying on charts and indicators may not give a comprehensive understanding of the intrinsic value of an asset.
4. Impact of algorithmic trading: As algorithmic trading and high-frequency trading become more prevalent in the market, technical analysis may become less effective. These algorithms are able to execute trades at the millisecond level and make decisions based on large amounts of data, making it difficult for traditional technical analysis to keep up with the speed of market changes.
Affirmative Views
1. Purpose of analysis:
Reporting work: If technical analysis is done to complete a job or report to others, then its purpose is more to provide a systematic way of observing the market and to demonstrate the application of certain analytical skills and tools. In this case, the accuracy and predictability of the analysis may not be the most important, the key is to be able to demonstrate professionalism and systematicity.
Personal decision-making: If technical analysis is used to make trading decisions for oneself, then its purpose is to help traders identify potential trading opportunities and risks and develop more rational trading strategies. In this case, the actual application effect of technical analysis and personal interpretation of the analysis results are particularly important.
2. The basis of technical analysis:
Behavioral basis of market participants: The effectiveness of technical analysis comes in part from the use of these tools and methods by a large number of market participants (including traders, investors, hedge funds, etc.). Technical analysis is not intended to accurately predict the market, but to identify possible behavioral patterns and trends in the market by observing historical data of prices and trading volumes.
Tools rather than predictions: Technical analysis is more like a toolbox to help traders understand market dynamics and develop trading plans, rather than a set of magic that can accurately predict future price movements. It provides a framework that allows traders to make more rational decisions in uncertainty.
In this diverse perspective, as a trader, it is important to keep an open mind, flexibly apply various analytical methods, and constantly learn and adjust your strategy. The market environment is changing rapidly, and only by constantly adapting and exploring can we remain invincible in trading.
What do you think about the role of technical analysis? Welcome to share your views and experiences. #以太坊ETF批准预期 #加密分析 #ETH走势分析 $ETH
