📍Why did the market give a 1 billion valuation in advance when $NOT was initially launched? 丨Comparative valuation method of leading Meme

The leading Meme will have a market value of about 3% of the infrastructure FDV. I have listed this data, all calculated based on FDV

The market can initially estimate 1 billion before NOT goes online, based on this judgment basis (FDV)

However, I think there is a prerequisite for this 3%: the market activity of the chain is sufficient

That is to say, the liquidity of the chain market needs to be sufficient. I have noticed that some research reports have used this valuation comparison method to conduct some Meme market research on unpopular chains and calculate the corresponding valuation, but I think it is of little reference value

Because many chains are currently playing by themselves, there is no user or liquidity retention for a long time, so this 3% leading Meme is more like an indicator of whether the chain is active based on the current results and the ceiling of the Meme market

Whether the Meme activity is active can almost be used as an indicator to judge the user activity of a chain. See BNB in ​​the chart below Chain's leading Meme market capitalization share is still a little bit lower

📍But currently, for several relatively active chains (ETH/BNB/SOL/TON), the average leading Meme market capitalization share is basically 3%

In addition to the above phenomena, I also have a few personal thoughts in this short article👇🏻(1) If the fundamentals of these Layer1 remain unchanged in the future, that is, there is no large-scale migration of liquidity stock, then this chain-based 3% indicator can be used as the valuation level of the leading Meme
(2) If there are new popular chains launched in the future, and The Meme market of this chain has not yet emerged. 3% can be used as the valuation ceiling for the leading Meme, and the FDV market value of the chain can be used to gradually push it.
(3) The valuation ceiling of the Meme market should react to the FDV market value of the infrastructure.
(4) Market attention and FDV are the basic conditions. The corresponding Meme should also be calculated by FDV. Memes with various token designs that lead to unfair distribution should be considered for exclusion. Bottom-up should be considered first.
Figure 2: The valuation issue discussed with a few friends 5 minutes before NOT went online yesterday was based on the above logic.