It has been 79 days since#BTCfirst broke through the $60,000 mark on February 28. From the perspective of the on-chain chip distribution structure, it seems that some subtle changes are taking place.
When we compare the URPD data from April 27 to May 17, we can find that the early low-cost chips in the top five price ranges have decreased by a total of 110,000 pieces (the green framed part). Most of these chips have been traded to the price range of 60,000-67,000 US dollars (the blue framed part). In short, low-cost chips are sold at high prices, and funds are constantly buying in this range.
After these days of turnover, the chips in the 60,000-67,000 range have accumulated more and more, and currently there are 2.59 million chips, which is much larger than other major price ranges. This is a very positive phenomenon. From the perspective of the chip structure, the thicker the price range, the more sufficient the turnover, and the more support it can play.
How to correctly understand the supporting role of price range?
In fact, it is not accurate to say "support", but it should be understood as "resistance" and "stickiness". When the market price wants to leave this range, whether it breaks through or falls below, it will encounter "resistance" because this is the average cost area of short-term chips. In a bull market, most people will choose to lie flat when the cost is broken, and in a bear market, most people will choose to cash out when the cost is broken. This is the source of "resistance".
"Stickiness" means that even if the price leaves the range in the short term, as long as the event does not continue to generate fission, the price will slowly return to the range, as if stickiness has been generated. Unless a large amount of turnover occurs in other price ranges, resulting in the digestion of the previous chip accumulation area, then the "stickiness" will disappear.
In the past few days of tweets, I have been trying to use data to verify that the current BTC price is suppressed by emotions, not by lack of funds. Although I don’t know how long this adjustment will take? But as long as there is no deep drop, and the decline is replaced by a horizontal drop, it is the most ideal situation. And from the current chip structure distribution trend, it has increasingly met the foundation for achieving this "ideal situation".
We can see that the small huge volume column around $66,000 actually appeared on April 27, and it has not been digested until today, indicating that the chips here are very firm. Even if BTC falls back to $56,000, it has not been shaken, and once it rebounds back to this range, it will continue to buy, so that a thick and wide safety cushion has gradually formed in the 60,000-67,000 range. It has more and more characteristics of a staged bottom range! As long as there is no serious deviation from expectations and events that hit sentiment at the macro level, the possibility of a deep drop in BTC will only become smaller and smaller if the current trend continues.
From the data, the next chip accumulation area in the current range is 41,200-43,400 US dollars. In other words, assuming there is a deep pullback, this is the most likely position for resistance. But I personally think that the probability of a pullback to this is very small, even less than 1%.
In fact, many knockoffs are now at bargain prices, and those who are not firm have been washed out. At present, I still stick to my previous view that the bull market is not over yet. There will definitely be another outbreak period later, which is the so-called knockoff season, maybe a few months later, but it doesn’t matter, be friends with time, and weld the car door tightly and don’t get out.
I have to say that this month is the most difficult in the past two years. After all, when the production was cut last time, many of you may not have been in this circle and you don’t know how hard it was. Now it seems very difficult when you see it with your own eyes. The overall situation can be described as critical.
What is most detrimental to people's mentality at this time is the bunch of messy remarks on the Internet, which make people even more panicked and become the last straw that breaks the camel's back.
So what I want to tell you here is that no matter what others say, you must have a bottom line in your heart. I believe that as long as you enter this market, you will know that ups and downs are very normal. What we need to do at this time is to calm down, improve ourselves, and prepare to welcome the big bull.
Well, today's sharing ends here. Finally, if you want to learn more knowledge, you can find me on the homepage and welcome the upcoming copycat season together.
#山寨币热点 $BTC
