Almost a month after Bitcoin’s fourth Bitcoin halving event, the first signs of reduced miner revenue are slowly emerging, with one clear indicator being a drop in the network’s hash rate.

The recent drop in this metric could indicate miner capitulation, where less efficient miners exit due to falling profitability.

Hash Ribbon Shows Signs of Capitulation

Earlier, the 30-day moving average of hash rate peaked at 630 exahashes per second (EH/s), but has now dropped to 606 EH/s. Although the drop was relatively small and short-lived, it is noteworthy because hash rate usually rises, indicating a shift in patterns.

CryptoQuant’s findings reveal a sharp drop in hash rate, which often means a scenario of “miner capitulation” is occurring.

"Miner capitulation" refers to less efficient miners exiting the process. They shut down their mining machines, resulting in less computing power for mining. They may also migrate to other regions or sell recently mined Bitcoin to cover operating expenses.

CryptoQuant’s analysis highlights the Hash Ribbon indicator, which posits that these conditions often coincide with large price drops for BTC, providing an opportunity to profit from price declines.

However, it is important to note that this will not happen immediately after the initial capitulation signal from the hash belt, as miners capitulate in a smooth process. Instead, it will happen gradually over the following days and weeks as less efficient miners gradually exit the market.

Miners’ profitability plummets

Bitcoin experienced a block reward halving on April 20, which caused the reward for each new block to drop from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC, which in turn caused the network’s daily mining output to drop from 900 BTC to approximately 450 BTC. The change had a significant impact on major miners, including Bitfarms, Cipher, CleanSpark, Core Scientific, Riot and Terawulf, which saw output fall by an average of 6% to 12% in April, according to The Miner Reported by Mag magazine.

According to HashRateIndex, as output decreases, miners’ profitability or “hash price” has also fallen, with the current daily revenue per terahash falling to $0.049, a drop of more than 73% from $0.182 per second per day before the halving event.

Such a scenario also weighs on Bitcoin’s price as concerns about selling grow as miners face increasing pressure.

Conclusion:

The Bitcoin mining industry is facing a number of challenges following the recent block reward halving. Declining hash rates and reduced miner profitability suggest that some less efficient miners may be exiting the market, a phenomenon known as “miner capitulation.” With rising mining costs and diminishing returns, miners may have to seek more profitable regions or sell Bitcoin to maintain operations. Additionally, the decline in the hash belt indicator suggests that Bitcoin prices could face further pressure, especially as miners increase market supply in order to cover costs.

While the market may experience volatility in the short term, in the long term, adjustments in the mining industry may promote its efficiency and centralization. For Bitcoin investors, this is a critical time to pay close attention to market dynamics, mining costs, and macroeconomic indicators. As miners gradually adapt to the new economic reality, the stability of the Bitcoin network and the survival strategies of miners will have an important impact on the future direction of cryptocurrency. #比特币 #哈希率 #比特币算力