Many friends asked me how to play the US stock market. Why do they want to play the US stock market?
The answer is very simple. There have not been many big trading opportunities in the cryptocurrency circle in recent months (if you are good at short selling, just ignore what I said). In terms of the money-making opportunities in the spot market, the US stock market has been several A-shares stronger than the cryptocurrency circle during this period. Especially for those who have already built positions and believe that beta is king, if they only focus on the secondary opportunities in the cryptocurrency circle in the next few months, it is likely to be a waste of time. If we talk about the opportunities in the primary market, I think it is smaller than the secondary market, and projects with certain exit opportunities have already begun to harvest in the primary market.
The cryptocurrency circle is now in a very embarrassing situation. In fact, this state has lasted for some time. That is, the paradigm innovation at the infrastructure level no longer exists, and the probability of such innovation in the future is getting lower and lower. Now you look at the narratives of the projects led by top VCs and you will understand. Either they come to grab a piece of the pie, or they create a virtual concept, but it doesn't matter. There is nothing exciting at all.
If you want to talk about hyping emotions, that is, buying memes. Why not buy targets with better liquidity and can cause a wider range of fomo? Yes, I am talking about meme coins in the US stock market, such as GME.
Recently, when I was having dinner and chatting with friends in the circle, I have been sharing a view that the current crypto may have reached the Internet stage of 2000-2005.
What era was that?
The infrastructure is already very crowded, application layer companies are gradually rising, the number of Internet users is exploding, and traffic is getting more and more expensive. Like Google, Amazon, Tencent, and Alibaba, their products and market value have basically started to grow rapidly since then. And this path is inevitable, because users will eventually only have stickiness with applications, and only applications can capture the value of traffic in the long run. Without prosperous upper-layer applications, the underlying protocol is too far away from mass adoption.
So I think that infrastructure that cannot win the application layer war in the future will be eliminated. In fact, I have always been optimistic about Ethereum, but I am now strongly worried about the future of Ethereum. The main reason is that I can't see the inevitability of killer applications appearing on Ethereum.
If a business scenario is deeply integrated with blockchain, it must be based on the premise of deep cooperation between the public chain and the application.However, the current route of Ethereum is obviously to focus on promoting extreme decentralization and cryptographic security. There is no problem in theory. It is very crypto-native and decentralized. Therefore, in the DeFi scenario, Ethereum is still the first choice for big funds.
However, there are many business scenarios, especially those application scenarios that are closer to users' daily lives, such as games, social networking, e-commerce, entertainment, and even many segmented high-dau tracks. What entrepreneurs need is human touch, interest exchange, resource complementarity, active cooperation, and back-to-back.
Obviously, in this regard, the Ethereum system is a bit too high-brow. The Ethereum Foundation has little interest in those "unexpected innovations" outside their plans, which is very unfavorable to the prosperity of the ecosystem and the attraction of new developers.
Taking the public chain with an exchange background as an example, they often provide various ecological cooperation to the project party, covering investment, event sponsorship, wallet services, traffic support, currency listing and other one-stop services.
Taking other public chains as an example, their BD and market personnel (even founders) are more active and provide greater support for early projects.
Finally, I guess someone will say whether I am going to abandon Ethereum.
The answer is: No.
Ethereum still has great comprehensive advantages, but.
The explosion of the application layer will be the key to gaining a wider range of consensus. Therefore, in the future of the currency circle, those who have applications will win the world.
